Celtics at Heat Odds & Pick (05/19)

Celtics at Heat Odds & Pick (05/19)

Blake Daniels, May 19, 2022

The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat return to the FTX Arena on Thursday night for Game 2 of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals.

Miami bucked a slow start in Game 1 and shut down the Boston offense in the third quarter to erase a double-digit lead and build their twin-digit spread. The Heat never looked back behind Jimmy Butler’s 41 points as they beat the Celtics 118-107 while also covering the 5.5-point betting spread.

The Celtics played without two starters in Marcus Smart and Al Horford and their presence on defense was especially missed. Boston allowed Miami to score 118 points in Game 2, the most they have allowed in the current postseason. Smart has been upgraded to probable while Horford is expected to be out for Game 2, leaving Boston at a disadvantage. For Miami, Kyle Lowry remains out but his absence was hardly felt in Game 2 with Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo playing good minutes.

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics played without two starters in Game 1 as Marcus Smart was out with a foot injury and Al Horford was a late scratch due to health and safety protocols. Despite their absence, the Celtics were off to a good start with Jayson Tatum pouring in 21 points in the first half as the Celtics took a 62-54 halftime lead.

But Boston unraveled in the third quarter without the defensive expertise of Smart and Horford as Jimmy Butler scored 17 points and the Heat outscored the Celtics 22-2 to start the period and 17-3 to close the stanza. Miami took a 93-76 lead to open the fourth and never looked back. Tatum would score only 8 points in the second half as Butler and the Heat put the cuffs on the Celtics star.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat recovered from a slow Game 1 start and exploded in the third quarter, holding Boston to 14 points while scoring 39 in the said period. Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 41 points as he took every Celtic defender to school. Butler has now scored at least 40 three times in the current postseason and five teams since wearing the Heat uniform with all five instances coming in the playoffs.

Tyler Herro also came up big with 18 points off the bench while Gabe Vincent filled in nicely for the injured Kyle Lowry with 17 points. Victor Oladipo also gave Coach Spo good minutes off the bench as Miami held court in Game 1. Lowry is expected to miss Game 2 again and he has missed Miami’s last seven playoff games.

Who Wins?

The Heat are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Celtics. Miami is also 3-2 SU in their last five home games against Boston.

The Celtics are:
The Heat are:

12-5 SU in their last 17 games played.
4-2 SU in their last six games played on the road.
19-13 SU in their last 32 road games against the Eastern Conference.
7-2 SU in their last nine games against an opponent from the Southeast Division.
4-2 SU in their last six games as betting underdogs.

15-4 SU in their last 19 games played.
10-0 SU in their last 10 games played at home.
14-4 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent from the Eastern Conference.
27-6 SU in their last 33 home games against teams from the Eastern Conference.
33-11 SU in their last 44 games as betting favorites.

Moneyline Odds: Celtics +140, Heat -170
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/19/2022

The Heat displayed the stuff that has made them the top defensive team in the 2022 NBA playoffs. Miami held Boston to 14 third-quarter points and allowed only 11 three-point makes after Boston made 22 in Game 7 against the Bucks. Jayston Tatum scored only 8 points in the second half when it mattered as Miami put on a defensive clinic to rally from a double-digit win to take Game 1.

Boston looked like they were locked in during the first half. But when Miami made their run during the third quarter, the Celtics looked helpless without two of their defensive stalwarts in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Without Smart and Horford, the Heat shot 48.8% from the floor and won the battle of the rebounds. Miami also had 10 steals and 2 blocks to force Boston on the ropes.

I expect the Celtics to bounce back after that poor Game 1 performance. However, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown cannot carry this team on their own. Marcus Smart was their third offensive option and while he has been upgraded to probable, there is no guarantee that he will play or will be 100%. Meanwhile, Al Horford will remain out due to health protocols. Meanwhile, the Heat have the momentum heading to Game 2. Jimmy Butler is coming off a 41-point game and with Butler finding his game, the other Heat scorers were able to get their shots off and made them. If Marcus Smart plays, Boston has a chance to win this game but it won’t be easy. Without the guarantee that Smart will play and knowing that Horford is out, I will have to go with the safe choice which also happens to be the home team here.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Celtics at Heat Spread Betting Prediction

The Celtics are 2-4 ATS in their last six games played against the Heat. But Boston is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games played in Miami.

The Celtics are:

11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games.
13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.
4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .500.
9-3 ATS in their last 12 game after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
20-7 ATS in their last 27 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Heat are:

14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
7-2 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
9-3 ATS in their last 12 Conference Finals games.
12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against the Atlantic Division
5-2 ATS in their last nine games played in May.
9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.
44-20 ATS in their last 64 playoff games as betting favorites.
4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home betting favorites.
4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Spread Odds: Celtics +3.5 (-110), Heat -3.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/19/2022

The Heat easily covered the betting spread with a double-digit win in Game 1. Jimmy Butler was in his element as he delivered big plays on both offense and defense. With Butler scoring 41, Miami looked unstoppable in the second half after struggling to start the game. There’s no doubt that the Celtics will be back with a vengeance here. However, the Celtic will still be at a disadvantage because Al Horford will remain out due to health and safety protocols.

The good news for Boston, if you consider it good, is that Marcus Smart is listed as probable and could play in Game 2. The question however is will he be 100%. Without that guarantee, the Celtics are at a disadvantage here. The Heat are 6-1 ATS at home in the current postseason. I expect another win and cover for Miami in Game 2.

Prediction: Miami Heat -3.5

Celtics at Heat Over/Under Betting Prediction

The total has gone over in eight out of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. The over is also 23-11-1 in the last 35 meetings in Miami.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 overall.
Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Under is 11-5 in the Celtics’ last 16 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last 4 Thursday games.
Over is 5-0 in the Celtics’ last 5 Conference Finals games.
Over is 8-2 in the Celtics’ last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
Over is 9-4 in the Celtics’ last 13 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
Over is 9-4 in the Celtics’ last 13 road games.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

Under is 9-3 in the Heat’s last 12 games played overall.
Under is 6-2 in the Heat’s last 8 games following a straight-up win.
Under is 6-2 in the Heat’s last 8 games as a home favorite.
Under is 6-2 in the Heat’s last 8 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
Under is 6-2 in the Heat’s last 8 home games.
Under is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in the Heat’s last 5 Thursday games.
Under is 8-1 in the Heat’s last 9 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-1 in the Heat’s last 9 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in the Heat’s last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in the Heat’s last 6 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
Under is 9-2 in the Heat’s last 11 playoff games as the betting favorite.
Under is 7-2 in the Heat’s last 9 games as betting favorites.
Over is 7-1 in the Heat’s last 8 games versus a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 19-7 in the Heat’s last 26 Conference Finals games

Over/Under Odds: Over 207.5 (-110), Under 207. 5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/19/2022

These teams have combined to score 222.0 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head games played and 214.33 in their most recent three encounters. The Heat and Celtics combined for 225 points in Game 1 with Jimmy Butler erupting for 41 points. It would be too much to ask of Butler to score 40+ points again in Game 2 but even then, the score was way over the total in the previous game.

Miami shot just 33% from deep and the Celtics even worse at 32% from behind the arc. But remember that these are two teams that can light it up from downtown in any given game. I’m not expecting a shootout from both teams but at least, both teams should shoot better from three-point land in Game 2 which should add more to the score. Marcus Smart’s possible return should be a boost to Boston’s scoring. Smart is averaging 15.3 points per game in the postseason. We’ve seen Jayson Tatum bounce back from a poor game during the Bucks series and I expect him to do the same here. Both teams will continue to play good defense but the 207.5 point total is too low for the offensive quality of both teams.

Prediction: Over 207.5

Author: Bryan Simpson