Grizzlies vs Jazz Odds and Pick (04/05)

Grizzlies vs Jazz Odds and Pick (04/05)

Blake Daniels, April 5, 2022

The Memphis Grizzlies look to keep the momentum going with the regular season heading to its final week. They travel to Utah to take on the Jazz on Tuesday night in a battle between playoff teams from the Western Conference. But while the Grizzlies continue to sizzle even with Ja Morant resting, the Jazz have struggled and have dropped to the 6th spot.

Memphis has won seven straight games and are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played. The Grizzlies are the second seed in the West and they will be waiting to see which team emerges as the 7th seed from the play-in tournament to determine their first-round opponent.

Utah has sputtered with a 4-6 SU record in their last 10 games played and after the end of Sunday’s games, the Jazz are now the 6th seed in the West with the Denver Nuggets moving one-half game ahead of them after the Nuggets beat the Los Angeles Lakers. The Jazz are coming off a 111-107 loss to the Golden State Warriors and have won just once in their last seven games played.

Memphis Grizzlies

Dillon Brooks had 30 points as a short-handed Grizzlies team defeated the top-seed Phoenix Suns last Friday night. Ziaire Williams added 19 points while DeAnthony Melton had 17 including six free throw makes in the final 20 seconds to enable the Grizzlies to win the game 122-11 and improve to an incredible 20-2 SU in 22 games without Ja Morant this season.

Morant missed his seventh straight game with knee soreness while Desmond Bane (left ankle soreness), Steven Adams (left calf soreness), Tyus Jones (left-hand soreness), and Jaren Jackson Jr. (right thigh injury management) sat out the game. Despite their absences, the Grizzlies showed their incredible depth.

Memphis is second in the NBA in scoring at 115.4 points per game this season. They are the top rebounding team in the league at 49.4 boards grabbed per contest and are 6th in passing at 25.7 assists per game. The Grizzlies are 12th overall in scoring defense at only 109.2 points per game allowed.

Moneyline Odds: Grizzlies +198, Jazz -213
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/05/2022

Utah Jazz

After snapping a five-game losing skid by beating the woeful Los Angeles Lakers, the Jazz returned to their losing ways with a 111-107 loss to the Golden State Warriors who played without Steph Curry. As with their loss to the Clippers two games ago, the Jazz blew a 20-point lead against the Dubs.

Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley each scored 26 points for Utah while Bojan Bogdanovic added 17 but it wasn’t enough to topple the Steph-less Warriors. Rudy Gobert had a monster double-double with 14 points and 20 rebounds but the Jazz could not stop the barrage of three-pointers from the Warriors in the 4th quarter.

The Jazz are the 7th best scoring team in the NBA this season at 113.4 points per game. They are also the league’s 5th best rebounding team at 45.9 boards grabbed per contest but are only 27th in passing at 22.3 assists per game. Utah is 10th in scoring defense at 107.9 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

Memphis is 7-0 SU in their last seven games played. The Grizzlies are 4-1 SU in their last five games played on the road, 4-1 SU in their last five April games, and 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against opponents from the Western Conference.

Utah is 3-4 SU in their last seven games against the Western Conference, 4-6 SU in their last 10 games against the Southwest Division, 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played, but 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played at home.

Head to head, Utah Jazz are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Grizzlies but Memphis Grizzlies is 2-0 SU against Utah in two meetings this season.

The Grizzlies are playing incredible basketball right now. They have won seven straight games even with Ja Morant sitting out due to an injury. Guys like Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, DeAnthony Melton, Brandon Clarke, Ziaire Williams, Xavie Tillman, and even Jon Konchar are playing impressive basketball with the opportunities given them.

The Jazz meanwhile have struggled to find their form even if they are playing with a complete lineup. Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Rudy Gobert have been impressive but other than Jordan Clarkson the Utah bench looks very shallow and hasn’t contributed much to help their starters.

However, Memphis has already clinched the Southwest Division and the second seed in the Western Conference so there isn’t much to play for the rest of the way except keeping themselves in top form. The Grizzlies will still be able to show their wares here but they will likely give their regulars lesser minutes and test their reserves if they can be useful in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are still in a battle to win the Northwest division and is still trying to move up the team standings to get a higher ranking. As far as need is concerned, the Jazz need this game more than the Grizzlies. Sure, Memphis isn’t just going to lay down and die. But with all the injuries they are resting and in order to avoid more of those injuries, I don’t expect the Grizzlies to be too invested in this game than the Jazz.

Prediction: Utah Jazz

Other Bets to Make

Memphis is 41-18 ATS in their last 59 games played. The Grizzlies are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 35-17 in their last 52 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Tuesday games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win, 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a straight up win, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.

Utah is 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 games played overall, 22-47-3 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight up loss, 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games after an ATS loss, 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 0-5 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, and 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.

Spread Odds: Grizzlies +5 (-120), Jazz -5 (+100)
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/05/2022

Memphis is an excellent team against the spread but the Jazz have played much better at the Vivint Arena than away from it. Utah is 8-4 ATS in their last dozen 12 games thee while the Grizzlies have failed to cover the betting spread in five out of their last seven road games. With the Jazz needing this game more than the Grizzlies, look for Utah to throw the entire arsenal at the Grizzlies.

Prediction: Jazz -5

The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played by the Grizzlies. The under is 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games after a straight up win, 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home percentage better than .600, and 4-2 in their last six road games after a three-day rest.

The total has gone under in 11 out of the Jazz’s last 17 games played. The under is 9-4-1 in Utah’s last 14 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 6-2 in their last 8 home games when their opponents allow 100 or more points in their previous game, 6-1 in their last seven home games against an opponent with a winning road record, and 4-1 in their last five home games against an opponent with a winning record.

Over/Under Odds: Over 221 (-110), Under 221 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/05/2022

These teams are in the Top 7 in the NBA in scoring with Memphis ranking 2nd and Utah at no. 7. They have combined to score 234.8 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 233.67 points per game in their last three encounters.

Memphis has hit at least 230 four times in their last six games played and no lower than 228 points during that span. Utah has seen the total go over 230 points twice in their last three games played and has conceded at least 111 points five times in their last seven outings.

Even without their key players, the Grizzlies have been able to put up points on the scoreboard and it won’t be any different here. 221 seems to be too low for a total between these two high-scoring teams. Up until a total of 230 points, I’ll take the over.

Prediction: Over 221

Author: Bryan Simpson