Blake Daniels, May 9, 2022
The Memphis Grizzlies look to regain home-court advantage when they face the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 of their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinals series at Chase Center on Monday night.
After allowing the Warriors to win one at their FedExForum, the Grizzlies were blown out in Game 3 and now trail the series again 1-2 with Game 4 to be played in the Warriors’ arena.
Golden State’s offense has looked unstoppable in the playoffs as they are the highest-scoring team in the current postsason. Jordan Poole is having an excellent postseason as he averaged 21 points per game against the Nuggets in the first round and is putting up 26 points per game in three games against the Grizzlies.
The Dubs opened as 9-point betting favorites but the line has moved up to -10 for Golden State.
Ja is Likely Out of Game 4
The main storyline for Game 4 is whether Grizzlies superstar Ja Morant will be able to play on Monday. Morant left Game 3 with over six minutes left in the game after Jordan Poole grabbed his right knee while double-teaming the Grizzlies star. Ja immediately exited the game and went to the locker room with a noticeable limp.
Morant and Memphis took exception to Poole’s play but the latter denied that he was trying to intentionally hurt Morant. The league will not take action against Poole but if Morant will miss game 4 because of a knee injury, that’s going to be a huge hit for the Grizzlies who are trying to avoid going down 1-3 in the series.
Memphis has listed Morant as doubtful for Game 4 with head coach Taylor Jenkins telling ESPN on Sunday that his star point guard is likely out of Monday’s game. Whether or not Jenkins was just being conservative regarding Morant’s situation, it’s clear that Memphis stands little chance of beating the Dubs without Morant’s scoring and leadership.
Two Down, Two to Go for the Dubs
Meanwhile, the Warriors are halfway to the Western Conference finals with a 2-1 series lead. The Dubs stole home-court advantage by taking Game 1 and held court in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in the series. With two more games left to be played at Chase Center, including Game 4, all the Dubs have to do is hold court.
The Warriors were smoking hot in Game 3, shooing 63.1% from the field and 53.1% from three-point distance while making 17 three-pointers. Steph Curry shot just 2-8 from deep but was 7-14 overall and 14-14 from the foul line as he finished with team-high 30 points. Poole added 27 on 11-17 shooting, including 3-5 from deep while Klay Thompson had 21 points 8-13 shooting including 4-6 from three-ball.
With the Warriors trio putting up a combined 71 points, there was no stopping the Golden State offense which scored 142 points, their most in the current postseason. The Dubs are the highest-scoring team in the playoffs at 118.8 points per game.
The Grizzlies are:
13-7 SU in their last 20 games played.
2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road.
12-6 SU in their last 18 games played against the Western Conference.
6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Warriors.
5-14 SU in their last 19 road games played against the Warriors.
The Warriors are :
11-2 SU in their last 13 games played overall.
6-0 SU in their last six games played at home.
14-5 SU in their last 19 home games against the Grizzlies.
4-6 SU in their last 10 head-to-head games against Memphis.
23-7 SU in their last 30 home games played.
Moneyline Odds: Grizzlies +400, Warriors -600
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/09/2022
This is practically a do-or-die game for the Grizzlies. Although they are just 1-2 down in the series, a loss here will put them on the brink of elimination. In the history of the NBA playoffs, only 13 teams out of 269 teams, or just 4.2% have come back from a 1-3 deficit to win the series and 92.8% of the teams up 3-1 have gone on to win the series.
Memphis will get Dillon Brooks back and Steven Adams should be able to contribute better in Game 4. However, the big issue with the Grizzlies is if Ja Morant will be able to play for them. According to an ESPN report on Sunday evening, head coach Taylor Jenkins said that Morant could miss the game with a knee injury. If that’s the case, then the Grizzlies are at a huge disadvantage.
Sure, the Grizzlies went 20-5 without Morant during the regular season. In fact, they moved up the team standings when he was out. But then this is the postseason and these teams have played each other thrice already and they already know the other team well that an absence like Morant’s will make the difference.
Memphis comes at a tantalizing +395 odds but without Morant, those odds have little value. Warriors should be able to take advantage of Ja’s absence and win this one.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
Grizzlies vs Warriors Game 4 Spread Prediction
The Grizzlies are:
11-2 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.
11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a winning percentage better than .600.
12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.
20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss.
38-14 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games as betting underdogs.
39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
35-17 ATS in their last 52 games playing on one-day rest.
39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against an opponent with a home winning % of greater than .600.
6-15 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as betting underdog.
2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus an opponent with a winning home record.
0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs.
The Warriors are:
20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record.
39-15-1 ATS in their last 55 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
38-18-4 ATS in their last 60 Monday games.
6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after an ATS win.
3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600.
2-5 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on one-day rest.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as betting favorites.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as betting favorites.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning straight up record.
Spread Odds: Grizzlies +10 (-110), Warriors -10 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/09/2022
Golden State blew out the Grizzlies in Game 3 but remember that Memphis played without Dillon Brooks who was suspended for his flagrant foul on GP2. Brooks has been a valued contributor for Memphis and averaged 18.2 points per game during the regular season and 16.5 points per game during the first round. Brooks scored only 8 points in Game 1, went scoreless in Game 2 after being ejected, and sat out Game 3. No doubt, he will be the player to watch in Game 4 as he has not shown up in the series so far.
The Grizzlies also got Steven Adams back in Game 3 after he missed the first round due to COVID-19. Adams only had a cameo role in the game, playing a total of 6 minutes. Expect him to get more minutes in this game, especially since Memphis should be treating Game 4 as a must-win for them.
Memphis is the better ATS team this season at 57-33-1 ATS including their playoff games. Golden State is just 45-41-4 ATS overall this season. The Grizzlies also covered during the first two games of the series before getting blown out in Game 3. I
The issue with Memphis is that Ja Morant could miss Game 4 with a knee injury. That obviously changes the entire complexion of this game. If Morant suits up, go with the Grizzlies to cover the spread. If Morant is out, then the Warriors are the play here.
Prediction: Grizzlies +10 if Ja Morant plays. Take the Warriors if he is out.
Grizzlies vs Warriors Game 4 Over/Under Prediction
Over/Under Trends for the Memphis Grizzlies:
Over is 5-1 in Grizzlies’ last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
Over is 7-1 in Grizzlies’ last 8 games played in May
Over is 13-3 in Grizzlies’ last 16 playoff games as an underdog.
>Over is 4-1 in Grizzlies’ last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 6-2 in Grizzlies’ last 8 games as a road underdog.
Over is 10-4 in the Grizzlies’ last 14 games as betting underdogs.
Under is 5-3 in their last eight games played overall.
Under is 6-3 in their last nine road games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Grizzlies’ last 5 Monday games.
Under is 8-3 in Grizzlies’ last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-2 in Grizzlies’ last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over/Under Trends for the Golden State Warriors:
Over is 4-0 in the Warriors’ last 4 games following an ATS win.
Over is 6-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games following a straight up win.
Over is 5-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 Monday games.
Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 home games.
Over is 7-2 in the Warriors’ last 9 overall.
Over is 7-2 in Warriors’ last 9 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Warriors’ last 9 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in the Warriors’ last 9 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in the Warriors’ last 9 games as betting favorites.
Over is 7-2 in the Warriors’ last 9 playoff games as betting favorites.
Over is 5-2 in the Warriors’ last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2-1 in the Warriors’ last 8 Conference Semifinals games.
Under is 13-6 in the Warriors’ last 19 home games against an opponent with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
Under is 17-8 in Warriors’ last 25 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
Over/Under Odds: Over 227 (-110), Under 227 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/09/2022
The over has hit twice in three games played in this series, including 254 in Game 3. Both Golden State wins have been high-scoring games and the Memphis win came on a night when the Warriors shot just 7-38 or 18.4% from behind the three-point arc.
Steph Curry and Klay Thompson shot a combined 16-44 from the field including 5-23 from deep in Game 2 but the Warriors are shooting 49.6% from the floor, including 37.9% from three-ball during the postseason. If you ask me, that was more of an exception rather than their norm.
Golden State and Memphis rank no.1 and no. 2 in scoring during the current playoffs at 115.4 and 113.8 points per game respectively so there’s no question both teams can put up points. Memphis’ best chance at winning is slowing the Warriors’ offense down but that’s always easier said than done. They will be forced to play Golden State’s game once again and that will result in another track meet.
Prediction: Over 227, with or without Morant.