Hawks vs Heat Odds and Pick (04/26)

Hawks vs Heat Odds and Pick (04/26)

Blake Daniels, April 26, 2022

The Atlanta Hawks try to stave off elimination as they head to Miami to take on the Heat in Game 5 of their best-of-seven first-round playoff series on Tuesday night.

Miami put Atlanta on the brink with an impressive defensive effort in Game 4. The Heat held the Hawks to a series-low 86 points, the second time in four games where Atlanta has failed to reach the 100-point scoring mark. The Heat also limited Trae Young to only 9 points in Game 4 as they moved to within a game of clinching the series.

The Hawks looked like they has found signs of life when they stunned the Heat in Game 3 behind Young’s 24 points and game-winning floater. However, the Miami defense made the right adjustments in Game 4 as Young shot 3-11 from the floor including 3-10 from behind the three-point area.

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta got off to a good start in Game 1 and finished the first quarter up by one point. But the Heat outscored them in the final three periods and the Hawks ended up losing by 24 points. De’Andre Hunter led the Hawks with 24 points while John Collins had 11 off the bench. Kevin Knox also added 12 points while Trae Young was defended well and was held down to just 9 points.

After shooting 47% from the field and 37.4% from deep during the regular season, the Heat have shot only 44.5% from the floor and 32.7% from deep in this series. Young and Collins combined to average 44.6 points per game during the regular season but are just totaling 26.5 points per game against the Heat in the playoffs.

Moneyline Odds: Hawks +250, Heat -300
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/26/2022

Miami Heat

The Heat are looking good right now and they are playing terrific defense in the playoffs. Miami has held Atlanta to only 98.4 points per game in the playoffs and they are just one game away from advancing to the second round. They will have a good opportunity to do that on Tuesday night as the series shifts back to Miami for Game 5.

Jimmy Butler had his second big game of the series with 36 points and 10 rebounds in Game 5. Butler also had a 45-point game in Game 2 for Miami. P.J. Tucker and Bam Adebayo each added 14 points the last time out while Max Strus and Gabe Vincent scored 12 and 11, respectively. Victor Oladipo also came off the bench to score 6 points while grabbing 8 rebounds and issuing 4 assists in 26 minutes of action.

Who Wins?

Atlanta is 10-5 SU in their last 15 games played. The Hawks are 2-4 SU in their last six games played on the road, and 10-19 SU in their last 29 road games against the Eastern Conference.

Miami is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played. The Heat are 5-0 SU in their last five games played at home, 13-3 SU in their last 16 games against the Southeast Division, and 22-6 SU in their last 28 home games against opponents from the Eastern Conference.

Head to head, Miami Heat are 4-1 SU in their last five games played against the Hawks. Miami is also 8-1 SU in their last nine home games against Atlanta Hawks.

The Heat were without Kyle Lowry in Game 4 but that did not seem to bother them with the likes of Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo delivering good games for them. Jimmy Butler had another big game for Miami and the Heat look like they are clicking on all cylinders right now.

Meanwhile, Trae Young’s struggles continued in Game 4 as he was held down to just 9 points. Young was also limited to only 8 points in Game 1 as the Miami defense has done its job in stopping the Atlanta offense in the playoffs, holding them down to just 98.4 points per game. With Clint Capela and John Collins still working their way back after their respective injuries, Atlanta scored only 26 points in the paint in Game 4 while allowing 48, which was pretty much the difference in the game.

Expect the Hawks to give it their all as their season is down to this game. However, the Heat have looked great in this series and have shown why they are the East’s top seed. Look for the Heat to close out the series in front of their fans.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Other Bets to Make

The Hawks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games. Atlanta is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss of more than 10 points, 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as road underdogs, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs, 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on 1-day rest, 5-22 ATS in their last 27 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 1-5 ATS in their last six games as underdogs, 1-5 ATS in their last six games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after a double-digit home loss.

The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played. Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after a straight-up win of more than 10 points, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home favorites, 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 4-0 ATS in their last four games against an opponent with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on one day rest, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as betting favorites, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS win, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after a straight-up win, and 40-19 ATS in their last 59 playoff games as betting favorites.

Head to head, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played.

Spread Odds: Hawks +7 (-110), Heat -7 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/26/2022

The Heat have shown that they are the superior team in this series and now they will have the chance to close this at home. Miami could have swept the Hawks if not for that one-point loss in Game 3. However, ending the series in front of their fans may feel better than winning it in Atlanta.

With Trae Young scoring 12 points fewer than his regular season average, the Heat have been able to keep the Hawks’ offense in check. With Young unable to weave his magic, the Hawks have struggled to keep up with the Heat. On the other hand, Jimmy Butler has been finding his groove in the series and has exploded for 45 in Game 2 and 36 in Game 4, with the Heat winning both games.

Atlanta has also struggled against the betting spread this season going 40-48 ATS, including 15-29 ATS on the road. Give me the Heat to end this series in Game 4 and cover the betting spread.

Prediction: Heat -7

The total has gone under in each of the last six games played by the Hawks. The under is 4-0 in their last four games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-0 ATS in their last four games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 8-0 in their last eight games as road underdogs, 9-0 in their last nine road games against an opponent with a home winning percentage better than .600, 5-0 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 10-1 in their last 11 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 14-2 in their last 16 games as betting underdogs, 5-1 in their last six games when playing on one day rest, 9-3 in their last 12 Tuesday games, 19-7 in their last 26 playoff games as an underdog, and 38-16-1 in their last 55 conference quarterfinals games.

The total has gone under in each of the last four games played by the Heat. The under is 5-1 in their last six games against the Eastern Conference, 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-0 in their last four games when scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 12-2 in their last 14 playoff games as betting favorites, 17-5 in their last 22 conference quarterfinals playoff games, 33-12 in their last 45 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 5-2 in their last seven games after a straight-up win of more than 10 points, and 15-12-1 in their last 28 home games against an opponent from the Eastern Conference.

Head to head, the total has gone under in each of the last five meetings between these two teams. The under is also 25-8 in their last 33 games played in Miami.

Over/Under Odds: Over 217 (-110), Under 217 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/26/2022

These two teams have combined to score an average of 212.6 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 212.33 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings, including 196 points in Game 4. For this series, these teams have combined for 213.4 points per game after four games played.

The Heat have done a great job of containing Trae Young in the series as he has averaged only 16.5 points per game on 32.1% FG shooting. During the regular season, Young was putting up 28.4 points per game, the 4th highest scoring average in the league.

Miami played with the second slowest pace in the league during the regular season and has carried the same formula of success in the postseason. The Hawks are also not a very fast playing team as they only ranked 19th in pace during the regular season. Add those to the statistical history between these two teams and this has all the ingredients for a low-scoring affair.

Prediction: Under 217

Author: Bryan Simpson