Lakers vs Mavericks Odds (03/29)

Lakers vs Mavericks Odds (03/29)

Blake Daniels, March 29, 2022

The Los Angeles Lakers head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks at the American Airlines Center on Tuesday night.

Los Angeles is holding on to the 10th seed and is just one game ahead of the San Antonio Spurs entering Monday’s games. The Lakers need to finish with a better record than the Spurs who own the tiebreaker in their regular season matchup. But the Lakers are also just one-half game behind the Pelicans at 9th so they are still in good shape. However, they may be without LeBron James who suffered an ankle injury last Sunday.

Meanwhile, Dallas is trying to clinch the 4th seed and get home court advantage in the playoffs for the first time in the Luka Doncic era. Entering Monday’s games, the Mavs are one game ahead of the Utah Jazz for that position with each team having seven games left to play. Dallas has beaten the Lakers twice in their last three meetings and with the possibility that LBJ is out, this is a game they must and will most probably take advantage of.

Los Angeles Lakers

Los Angeles’s horror season dropped to another low on Sunday when the Lakers blew a 23 points lead and lost to the New Orleans Pelicans. LeBron James had a massive 39 point game but only scored 14 in the second half after suffering an ankle injury late in the second period.

Malik Monk had another big game off the bench with 23 points and 6 assists while Russell Westbrook had 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists. The Lakers missed 6 free throws in the game, which was key in an 8-point loss. They also turned the ball over 15 times while forcing only 7 on New Orleans.

The Lakers are tied for 11th in scoring at 111.6 points per game scored this season. Los Angeles is 19th in rebounding at 44.0 boards grabbed per contest. They are also just 16th in passing at 24.2 assists per game and are fourth from last in scoring defense at 114.3 points per game allowed.

Moneyline Odds: Lakers +535, Mavericks -606
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/29/2022

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic has not had home court advantage in the playoffs ever since he played for the Mavs. On Sunday, he scored 32 points to make sure that Dallas got an edge over the Utah Jazz. With the win, Dallas is one game ahead of them in the race for the 4th seed.

Reggie Bullock also had a big game with 23 points after making seven three-pointers. Jalen Brunson scored 22 points while Spencer Dinwiddie added 12 off the Mavs bench. Dallas knocked down 17 three-pointers at 50% accuracy and committed just 8 turnovers in a deliberately efficient outing.

The Mavs are 25th in the league in scoring at 106.7 points per game. Dallas is 27th in rebounding at 43.1 boards grabbed per contest and is 24th in passing at 23.1 assists per game this season. The Mavs have the second-best scoring defense at only 104.1 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

The Lakers are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games played. Los Angeles is 2-13 SU in their last 15 games played on the road, and 0-6 ATS in their last six games against the Southwest Division.

The Mavericks are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games played. Dallas is 26-12 SU in 38 home games played this season, 17-6 SU in 23 home games against Western Conference teams, and 4-2 ATS in their last six games against teams from the Pacific Division.

Head to head, the Mavs are 3-1 SU in their last four games against the Lakers. Dallas is also 15-5 SU in their last 20 home games against the LA Lakers.

There’s no question that the Lakers need this game more than the Mavericks do and that desperation can bring out the best in teams. However, after watching LeBron James sputter against the Pelicans after suffering an ankle injury, I’m not sure how he’s going to do in this game if he plays at all.

James scored 39 on Sunday but did not factor in the 4th quarter when the Pelicans were pulling away. After the game, he said he felt horrible and lost explosiveness. Without his explosiveness, James won’t be able to do the things he does and we know how bad the Lakers have been without James or if he doesn’t put up big numbers.

Meanwhile, the Mavs are just 2-3 SU in their last five games but they bounced back from a 21-point loss to the Timberwolves by beating the Utah Jazz by 14 points on Sunday. Dallas is trying to lock up home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs which they have not gotten since Luka arrived in town.

The win over the Jazz moved them one game ahead of Utah for that position and with a very winnable game against a struggling Lakers team, look for Luka and company to take advantage. Doncic scored 32 against Utah and look for him to have another big night versus a Lakers team that doesn’t defend well enough.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

Other Bets to Make

The Lakers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games played. Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in their last five games against an opponent from the Western Conference, 0-6 ATS in their last six games against the Southwest Division, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs, 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one day rest, 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs, and 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games played.
The Mavericks are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games played. Dallas is 4-2 ATS in their last six games against an opponent from the Pacific Division, 4-1 ATS in their last five Tuesday games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as betting favorites, 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games when playing on one day rest, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 27-13-1 ATS in their last 61 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

Head to head, the Mavs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games played against the Lakers.

Spread Odds: Lakers +11 (-110), Mavericks -11 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/29/2022

Dallas is the 4th best ATS team in the league this season, covering 56.8% of their total games played. They are slightly better as home favorites, at 15-11-1 ATS or a 57.7% cover. As betting favorites overall, the Mavs have a cover rate of 59.5%, or 7th best in the entire NBA. Dallas’ margin of victory at home is at 7.3 points per game and considering LeBron James is a big question mark here, you have to believe that the Mavs can cover this double-digit spread and beat the Lakers by a dozen points.

We saw the Lakers hang tough against the Sixers two games ago though as the Sixers weren’t too interested in covering the spread. Dallas just needs a win here and they beat this same Lakers team by only five points last March 1st. However, the Lakers have been terrible against the spread with a 41.9% cover this season, 4th worst in the league. With the way they have been blowing leads, you really can’t trust them this season.

With LeBron James’ status uncertain, it’s never wise to bet on the Lakers. Give me the Mavs to cover this double-digit spread at home. Dallas is 4-2 ATS in their last six home games as double-digit home favorites.

Prediction: Mavericks -11

The total has gone over in four out of the Lakers’ last five games played. The over is 8-1 in their last nine games against an opponent with a winning home record, 7-1 in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 6-1 in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, 4-1 after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 8-3 in their last 11 games as road underdogs, 5-2 in their last seven games after an ATS loss, and 10-4 in their last 14 road games.

The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by Dallas. The under is 5-0 in their last five games played at home, 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-0 in their last four games against an opponent with a losing record, 5-1 in their last six games as betting favorites, -1 in their last five games after an ATS win, 20-7-1 in their last 28 games as home favorites, 13-5 in their last 18 games after a straight-up win by more than 10 points, 37-16 in their last 53 games when playing on one day rest, and 25-10 in their last 35 games after a straight-up win.

Head to head, the total has gone under in nine out of the last 13 meetings between these two teams.

Over/Under Odds: Over 218.5 (-110), Under 218.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/29/2022

The Lakers play the 7th fastest pace in the league but the Mavs have the NBA’s slowest pace this season and the 2nd best scoring defense at only 104.1 points per game allowed.

Dallas likes to let Doncic have the ball in his hands, take plenty of time off, before creating plays for himself or his teammates. With that kind of deliberate style, it won’t be a surprise if this turns out to be a low-scoring game. The Dallas defense is also going to stifle the already topsy turvy Los Angeles offense and the Lakers will be playing with a compromised LeBron James if he gets cleared to play at all.

These teams have combined to score an average of 208.3 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. I don’t see this one ending differently.

Prediction: Under 218.5

Author: Bryan Simpson