Mavericks vs Pistons Odds & Pick (04/06)

Mavericks vs Pistons Odds & Pick (04/06)

Alia Parker, April 6, 2022

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday night.

Dallas is currently 49-30 on the season and in 4th place in the Western Conference team standings. The Mavs are just one game behind the Golden State Warriors for the 3rd seed in the conference and are also two games up on the 5th seeded Utah Jazz for the final home-court advantage slot in the West. Dallas is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played and is coming off a big win over the defending NBA champions Milwaukee Bucks.

The Pistons have long been eliminated from the playoffs but Detroit is playing its best basketball as of late. Instead of trying to tank to get a higher draft position, the Pistons have been winning games, splitting their last 10 while covering 19 of 22 games as betting underdogs. Detroit heads to this game with consecutive wins over the Sixers, Thunder, and Pacers and is looking to win four in a row for the first time in three years.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas bounced back after a disappointing loss to the Washington Wizards by defeating the defending champions Milwaukee Bucks 118-112 in their last game. Luka Doncic had another monster game with 32 points, 9 rebounds, and 15 assists to lead the Mavs while Dwight Powell had a double-double with 22 points and 13 rebounds, and Jalen Brunson scored 15.

Doncic has led Dallas in scoring in each of their last six games and he is currently ranked 4th in the NBA in scoring and 5th in assists.

The Mavs rank 26th in the league in scoring at 107.2 points per game. They are 27th in rebounding at 42.9 boards grabbed per contest and are 25th in passing at 23.2 assists per game. Dallas has the second-best scoring defense in the NBA at only 104.8 points per game allowed. They are 44-34-1 ATS this season and have an over/under record of 29-29-1.

Moneyline Odds: Mavericks -375, Pistons +305
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/06/2022

Detroit Pistons

Detroit may have the third-best record in the NBA but the Pistons are still trying to leave the season on a high note. Detroit heads to this game having won its last three games against the Sixers, Thunder, and Pacers. In their last game, Sadiq Bey hit seven three-pointers en route to scoring 31 points. Frank Jackson added 19 points with five triples and Killian Hayes with 10 points and 7 assists.

They have been excellent against the betting spread at 45-34 ATS. Detroit has an over/under mark of 37-39-3.

The Pistons rank 28th in scoring at 104.8 points per game. They are 26th in rebounding at 43.0 boards grabbed per contest and are 24th in passing at 23.4 assists per game. Detroit is 19th overall in scoring defense at 112.0 points per game allowed this campaign.

Who Wins?

Dallas is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Mavericks are 2-4 SU in their last six road games and 11-5 SU in their last 16 games against the Eastern Conference.

Detroit is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. The Pistons are 2-3 SU in their last five games played at home, 1-10 SU in their last 11 games against the Western Conference, and 5-10 SU in their last 15 Wednesday games.

Head to head, the Mavericks are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Pistons, including 3-0 SU in their last three meetings.

Despite the season coming to a close, the Mavericks still have plenty to play for. Not only will they get to 50 wins for the first time since the 2014-15 season by beating the Pistons, but Dallas can still finish as high as third in the Western Conference so every game still matters to them. The goal is for them to finish in the Top 4 so they can have home-court advantage in Round 1 of the playoffs.

The Pistons meanwhile are playing their best basketball as of late. Detroit has won three in a row and they will be looking for their first four-game winning streak since they won five in a row from March 2-10, 2019. Saddiq Bey is coming off a 31-point game and will be Detroit’s key player if Cade Cunningham continues to rest. The 2021 top pick played only 8 minutes against the Thunder and sat out Sunday’s game against the Pacers.

The Mavs have won four out of their last five games with Luka Doncic scoring at least 32 points in each of those games. Doncic is averaging 28.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game and looks to be the key to this game. With Detroit ranked only 19th in scoring defense, look for Luka to have another big night.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

Other Bets to Make

Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. The Mavs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage below .400, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.

Detroit is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games played. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four Wednesday games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning record, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight up win, 18-3 ATS in their last 21 games when allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after an ATS win, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against an opponent with a winning road record.

Head to head, the Mavericks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games played against the Pistons. Dallas is also 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Detroit.

Spread Odds: Mavericks -8.5 (-110), Pistons +8.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/06/2022

Detroit has allowed an average of just 104 points per game in their current three-game winning streak and the Mavs aren’t one of the top-scoring teams in the league this season. That said, the tough Pistons defense should keep this game close, although it’s likely that the Mavs will emerge victorious here.

Dallas is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as spread favorites of at least 12 points and 1-3 ATS in four home games as such. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 19-2-1 ATS since February 16th and enter this game with their most successful stretch of the season. Detroit is also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs by at least a dozen points. I’ll take the plus points here.

Prediction: Pistons +8.5

The over is 4-0 in Dallas’ last four games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, and 4-0 in their last four road games. Although the total has gone over in each of the last four games played by the Mavs overall, the under is 48-29-2 in Dallas’ 79 games played this season and 20-19-1 in their 40 road games played this season.

The total has gone under in five out of the last seven games played by the Pistons. The under is 8-1 in their last nine games played at home, 6-1 in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 5-2 in their last seven games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-2 in their last seven games when their opponent allow 100 or more points in their previous game, and 5-2 in their last seven games after a straight up victory.

Over/Under Odds: Over 218 (-110), Under 218 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 04/06/2022

These are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league this season with Dallas ranked 26th and Detroit two places lower at 28th. Both teams are shooting less than 46% from the floor and aren’t among the top three-point shooting teams in the league this season.

The Mavs have favored the over in their recent games but remember that they have the no. 2 ranked scoring defense in the league at only 104.8 points per game allowed. You play that kind of defense against the 28th best scoring team in the NBA and it’s going to be a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Under 218

Author: Bryan Simpson