Mets vs Astros Odds and Pick (06/21)

Mets vs Astros Odds and Pick (06/21)

Blake Daniels, June 21, 2022

Two of the top teams in baseball open a mini two-game series on Tuesday when the New York Mets visit the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.

New York is 45-24 on the season and they are currently the NL East leaders, 5.5 games ahead of the defending champions Atlanta Braves. The Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 games and they are coming off a 6-0 win against the Miami Marlins to take their four-game set 3 games to one.

Houston is 41-25 on the campaign and they are the top team in the AL West Division. The Astros are currently 10 games up on the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers in the division standings. Houston is just 5-5 in their last 10 games played. The Astros defeated the White Sox 4-3 on Monday to win their series two games to one.

New York Mets

The Mets are one of the most profitable teams in baseball when it comes to Moneyline betting. They are also a solid 39-29 on the run line and have an OVER record of 36-28-4. In their last game played on Monday, New York produced another shut out win, defeating the Miami Marlins 4-0 behind David Peterson’s 5.1 scoreless innings pitched.

On Tuesday, Trevor Williams will open on top of the mound for the Mets. The 30-year-old right-hander from San Diego, California is 1-3 on the season with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.26 in 5 starts and 12 total games pitched. Williams has allowed 14 earned runs on 37 hits in 35.2 innings pitched with 33 strikeouts and 8 walks.

In his last appearance, Williams lasted just 2.1 innings while allowing one earned run on two hits during a 10-2 loss to the Brewers. The Mets are 3-4 in the last seven games where Williams has made an appearance.

Houston Astros

After a drop in performance heading to last week, the Houston Astros have won back-to-back series to get back on track. Like the Yankees, they have been solid on the run line but are just 31-35 on the run line this season. On Monday, rookie J.J. Matijevic hit a home run while Mauricio Dubon had a two-run shot to lead the Astros to a 4-3 win over the White Sox.

Jose Urquidy will pitch for Houston to open the series. The 27-year-old right-hander from Sinaloa, Mexico is 5-3 on the season with an ERA of 4.99 and a WHIP of 1.52 in 12 starts. Urquidy has allowed 34 earned runs on 81 hits with 47 strikeouts and 12 walks in a total of 61.1 innings pitched.

Urquidy did not factor in the decision in his last start as he pitched six innings while allowing three earned runs on five hits during a 4-3 win over the Texas Rangers. The Astros are 6-2 in his last eight mound appearances.

Mets vs Astros Betting Prediction

The Mets are 4-8 in their last 12 games played against the Astros. New York is also 0-6 SU in their last six road games in Houston.

The Mets are:

4-1 in their last 5 games played overall.
12-3 in their last 15 Tuesday games.
4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
26-9 in their last 35 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
23-8 in their last 31 Game 1s a series.
5-2 in their last 7 interleague games versus a right-handed starter.
9-4 in their last 13 interleague road games against a right-handed starter.
28-13 in their last 41 games versus a right-handed starter.
9-0 in their last 9 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
7-0 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
6-1 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
5-1 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
35-73 in their last 108 games as a road underdog.
16-35 in their last 51 games as an underdog.
3-7 in their last 10 vs. American League West.
2-7 in their last 9 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
1-5 in their last 6 road games against a right-handed starter.

The Astros are:

35-17 in their last 52 games played overall.
35-17 in their last 52 Tuesday games.
47-23 in their last 70 home games versus a right-handed starter.
5-11 in their last 16 interleague home games against an opponent with a winning record.
2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.
3-8 in their last 11 interleague games versus a right-handed starter.
2-6 in their last 8 interleague games against a team with a winning record.
1-4 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
23-9 in their last 32 games against a right-handed starter.
5-2 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
10-4 in their last 14 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
17-7 in their last 24 home games.
64-27 in their last 91 games following an off day.
26-11 in their last 37 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
25-11 in their last 36 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
40-18 in their last 58 Game 1s of a series.
99-46 in their last 145 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
68-79 in their last 247 games as a home favorite.

Moneyline Odds: Mets+110, Astros -120
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/21/2022

The Houston pitching staff has been throwing well this season but Jose Urquidy looks like one of its weakest links. After three good seasons to begin his MLB career, Urquidy has seen a big jump in contact allowed this season. That should put him in trouble against a Mets lineup that is loaded with star power and depth.

Despite moving back and forth between being a starter and reliever, Williams has turned in solid numbers this season including a 90 FIP- and 16.4% K-BB% If he pitches to his season numbers, the Astros won’t have too many scoring opportunities in this game.

I think Williams will pitch enough solid innings for the Mets’ bats to score runs against the struggling Urquidy.

Prediction: New York Mets

Mets vs. Astros Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in six out of the last nine games played between the Mets and Yankees. The over is however 5-1 in the last six meetings in Houston.

New York Mets Over/Under Trends:

Over is 17-8-1 in the Mets’ last 26 games played overall.
Over is 5-2-1 in the Mets’ last 8 road games.
Over is 12-5-1 in the Mets’ last 18 games following a win.
Over is 13-6 in the Mets’ last 19 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 17-8-1 in the Mets’ last 26 games played on grass.
Over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last 8 Game 1s of a series.
Over is 15-5-1 in the Mets’ last 21 interleague games.
Over is 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
Over is 15-5-1 in the Mets’ last 21 interleague road games.
Over is 6-2-1 in the Mets’ last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 18-7-2 in the Mets’ last 27 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 10-4-1 in the Mets’ last 15 versus a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 road games against a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 against the American League West.
Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 4-0-1 in the Mets’ last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-0 in the Mets’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Over is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 interleague road games against a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-2 in the Mets’ last 8 Tuesday games.

Houston Astros Over/Under Trends:

Under is 38-16-1 in the Astros’ last 55 overall.
Under is 9-4 in the Astros’ last 13 games following an off day.
Under is 9-4-1 in the Astros’ last 14 interleague games.
Under is 18-8-1 in the Astros’ last 27 home games.
Under is 9-4 in the Astros’ last 13 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 13-6-1 in the Astros’ last 20 games as a home favorite.
Under is 13-6-1 in the Astros’ last 20 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 32-15-4 in the Astros’ last 51 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 39-19-2 in the Astros’ last 60 games as a favorite.
Under is 29-12-1 in the Astros’ last 42 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 24-10 in the Astros’ last 34 games following a win.
Under is 36-15-1 in the Astros’ last 52 on grass.
Under is 11-3 in the Astros’ last 14 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 9-3 in the Astros’ last 12 Tuesday games.
Under is 9-2 in the Astros’ last 11 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-1-1 in the Astros’ last 7 interleague games versus a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0-1 in the Astros’ last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 5-1 in the Astros’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 4-1 in the Astros’ last 5 Game 1s of a series.
Over is 4-1 in the Astros’ last 5 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1-1 in the Astros’ last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in the Astros’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Over is 5-2-1 in the Astros’ last 8 games versus a right-handed starter.

Over/Under Odds: Over 9 (-110), Under 9 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/21/2022

Both teams are where they are in the standings right now because of their batting lineup and this game should reflect the kind of offense these teams have. New York has scored 25 runs in their last five games. The Astros have scored at least four runs five times in their last seven games, including three games with 9+ runs scored. These two teams have combined to score an average of 13.0 runs per game in their last three head-to-head meetings.

Houston is in the bottom half in runs scored and batting average but The Mets should help offset that as they are the top team in baseball when it comes to scoring runs and batting average. I have a good feeling that this is going to be a high-scoring game.

Prediction: Over 9

Author: Bryan Simpson