Mets vs Padres Odds and Pick (06/06)

Mets vs Padres Odds and Pick (06/06)

Blake Daniels, June 6, 2022

The New York Mets open a three-game set against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Monday.

New York is 37-19 on the season and is on top of the NL East, 8.5 games ahead of the defending World Series champions Atlanta Braves. The Mets also have the best record in the NL and are one game ahead of the Dodgers in the league standings. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games played and have won their last two games played.

San Diego is 33-21 on the season and is 2nd in the NL West division team standings, two games behind the Dodgers. The Padres are also third in the league standings, three games off the Mets’ pace. San Diego is 5-5 in its last 10 games played and has won three consecutive games.

This marks the first of six games between these two teams this season. The Mets have taken four out of the last five meetings between these two teams, although the Padres won their most recent encounter at 7-3.

New York Mets

The Mets are scoring an average of 5.04 runs per game this season. They lead the league with their .265 batting average and their .335 on-base percentage. New York is also ninth in slugging percentage at .408. New York’s pitching staff is giving up 3.74 runs per game, with opponents batting .230 against the Mets.Their ERA of 2.59 ranks seventh while their WHIP of 1.19 is ninth.

Jeff McNeill leads the Mets with a batting average of .311 while Pete Alonso is the team leader in home runs and RBIs with 16 and 53, respectively. Francisco Lindor has 45 RBIs and 9 home runs on the season while Starling Marte has 33 RBIs and seven home runs for New York.

Right-hander Carlos Carrasco will open on top of the mound for the Mets. The 35-year-old Venezuelan is 6-1 in 10 starts this season. Carrasco has an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.21. In a total of 57.0 innings pitched, he has allowed 23 runs on 56 hits with 51 strikeouts and 13 walks.

In his last outing, Carrasco gave up four hits without a run in five innings in a 5-0 win over Washington. The Mets are 4-1 in his last five starts including wins in the last four.

San Diego Padres

The Padres are scoring an average of 4.19 runs per game this season. They rank 20th in batting average at .233 and are 17th in on-base percentage at .312. San Diego is 27th in slugging at .358 while their pitching staff is conceding 3.69 runs per game. Opponents are batting at a .215 rate against the Padres and have a .215 batting average against them. San Diego is 5th in ERA and WHIP at 3.35 and 1.15, respectively.

Manny Machado has been San Diego’s main offensive weapon. He leads the team with 32 RBIs and 9 home runs while batting at a .342 clip. Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have 27 and 25 RBIs, respectively while Eric Hosmer has 4 homers and 25 RBIs on the season.

Blake Snell will get the opportunity to start for the Padres in this series opener. The 29-year-old left-hander 0-2 in three starts this season with an ERA of 4.80 and a WHIP of 1.07. Snell has pitched 15.0 innings this season and has allowed eight runs on 8 hits with 18 strikeouts and 8 walks.

In his most recent mound appearance, Snell conceded only two runs on two hits in six innings during a 3-2 loss to St. Louis. The Padres are 1-3 in his four games pitched this season with the Padres going 1-3 during that span.

Who Wins?

The Mets have won four out of their last five head-to-head meetings against the Padres. New York is also 2-1 in their last three road games played in San Diego.

The Mets are:

7-2 in their last 9 games played overall.
1-4 in their last 5 road games.
7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or lower.
7-0 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 11.0 or lower.
4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
5-1 in their last 6 Game 1s of a series.
5-1 in their last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
4-1 in their last 5 games versus a left-handed starter.
7-2 in their last 9 games on grass.
20-6 in their last 26 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
12-5 in their last 17 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
21-45 in their last 66 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
1-4 in their last 5 versus National League West.
8-3 in their last 11 games against the National League.
1-4 in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record.

The Padres are:

3-1 in their last four games played overall.
13-10 in their last 23 games played at home.
13-10 in their last 23 games played at home against the National League.
19-12 in their last 31 games played as betting favorites.
12-4 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series.
6-2 in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
8-3 in their last 11 games against the National League East.
14-3 in their last 17 games played in June.
16-37 in their last 53 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
2-5 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter.
2-5 in their last 7 home games versus a right-handed starter.
7-19 in their last 26 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
0-6 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Moneyline Odds: Mets -109, Padres -101
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/06/2022

San Diego’s offense has been playing well but they have struggled against right-handers as of late, going 2-4 in their last six games. They will be facing an opposing pitcher who isn’t only a right-hander but who has given up just six runs in his last three starts. Overall, San Diego is 2-4 in their last six games played and has dropped three out of their last five home games.

Meanwhile, the Mets have won seven out of their last nine games played overall and have scored 10 runs in their last three road games played. New York has hit the ball well against left-handers and they will be up against a starting pitcher who has struggled in his last three starts, giving up eight runs during that span. Snell has seen a high pitch count in each of his last two starts and this will only be his fifth start of the season.

Interestingly, the Mets have the rest advantage in a West Coast game as they will be taking the short flight from Los Angeles to San Diego. Meanwhile, the Padres have to travel back home from Wisconsin.

San Diego’s lineup isn’t loaded with left-handed hitters so Carrasco won’t have as much trouble as Snell who will be facing right-handed power batters in Alonso and Starling Marte.

Prediction: New York Mets

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres 6/6/22 Over/Under Betting Predictions

The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. However, the over is 13-7 in their last 20 games played in San Diego.

New York Mets over/under trends:

Over is 9-3 in the Mets’ last 12 overall.
Over is 9-3 in the Mets’ last 12 on grass.
Over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last 8 games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0-1 in the Mets’ last 5 Monday games.
Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower
Over is 7-2 in the Mets’ last 9 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
Under is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 road games against a left-handed starter.
Under is 14-6-2 in the Mets’ last 22 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

San Diego Padres over/under trends:

Under is 8-2-2 in the Padres’ last 12 games played overall.
Under is 18-7-1 in the Padres’ last 26 home games.
Under is 8-2-2 in the Padres’ last 12 on grass.
Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Under is 9-3 in the Padres’ last 12 games against a right-handed starter.
Under is 15-5-1 in the Padres’ last 21 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 8-3 in the Padres’ last 11 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-2 in the Padres’ last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 5-2 in the Padres’ last 7 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Under is 9-4 in the Padres’ last 13 versus National League East.
Under is 4-0-1 in the Padres’ last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-0 in the Padres’ last 4 home games versus a right-handed starter.

Over/Under Odds: Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-110 )
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/06/2022

The Padres are an average run-scoring team at home this season. However, the Mets rank third in the league in scoring and have recorded 38 extra base hits against left-handed pitchers this season. Alonso has been hitting well as of late and he should be able to hit a couple of hard balls on Monday.

The Mets are averaging 5.04 runs per game this season and 4.70 runs per game on the road. New York is also allowing 4.07 runs per game on the road this season so the Padres should score enough runs to help the Mets push the score over the total.

Prediction: Over 8.5

Author: Bryan Simpson