New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners (08/09)

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners (08/09)

Blake Daniels, August 9, 2022

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners play Game 2 of their current set at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night.

New York snapped out of a five-game losing skid with a 9-4 win over Seattle in Game 1 of this series. The Yankees are now 71-39 on the season and they are still on top of the AL East Division, 10.5 games ahead of the Toronto Blue Jay. However, the Yankees have fallen behind five games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the race for the best record in baseball.

Seattle is 59-52 on the season and they are in second place in the AL West division, 11.5 games behind the Houston Astros. However, the Mariners are tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for the second wild card spot in the AL, only one game ahead of the Baltimore Orioles. With the AL wild-card standings close, the Mariners would love to beat the Yankees again.

New York Yankees

New York is back with a one-game lead in the American League conference standings and is 10.5 games up in the AL East division. The Yankees ended a five-game losing streak with a win on Monday.

The Yankees are scoring 5.34 runs per game this season and hitting at .246 as a team. New York also leads baseball with an average of 1.74 home runs per game this season. The Yankees are also 4th with 70 steals this season. They are 4th in team ERA at 3.49 runs per game allowed. New York is fourth in baseball with only 47 errors this season.

Gerritt Cole will start on Tuesday night. He is 9-4 with an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.04. Cole has been terrific on the road this season with a 5-1 mark and an ERA of 4.28. He however lost his last start against Seattle, allowing six runs on seven hits in 6.0 innings pitched.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are was behind the division standings but are currently tied for the second wild card spot in the American League. Seattle is just 5-5 in their last 10 games played so they need to play better if they are to take one of the wild card spots.

Seattle is scoring 4.1 runs per game this season and hitting at .233. They are 23rd in scoring and 25th in team batting average. The Mariners also rank 14th in home runs per game with 1.14 and they are 15th in baseball when it comes to stolen bases with a total of 56. Seattle is allowing 3.93 runs per game and has the highest team fielding percentage in baseball. They rank first overall with only 38 errors committed this year.

Luis Castillo will start for Seattle. Castillo s 1-0 with an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.20 with Seattle. Castillo’s last start was against the Yankees last week. He threw for 6.2 innings and allowed only three runs as New York struggled against him.

Yankees vs Mariners Betting Prediction

The Yankees are 36-16 in their last 52 games played against the Mariners. New York is also 35-16 in their last 51 road games against Seattle.

The Yankees are:

0-5 in their last 5 overall.
0-5 in their last 5 games on grass.
Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 0-9 in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning record.
0-5 in their last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
0-4 in their last 4 road games against a right-handed starter.
0-5 in their last 5 road games.
0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
0-5 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
0-7 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
1-5 in their last 6 games versus the American League West.
5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
7-2 in their last 9 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
36-15 in their last 51 Tuesday games.
57-24 in their last 81 Game 2s of a series.

The Mariners are:

30-12 in their last 42 games played overall.
5-2 in their last 7 home games.
6-0 in their last 6 Tuesday games.
4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a right-handed starter.
8-1 in their last 9 games against the American League East.
13-3 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series.
22-7 in their last 29 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
20-7 in their last 27 games versus a right-handed starter.
30-12 in their last 42 games on grass.
10-4 in their last 14 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
25-10 in their last 35 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
5-2 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
5-2 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
12-5 in their last 17 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
3-7 in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
2-8 in their last 10 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Moneyline Odds: Yankees -127, Mariners +117
Odds from BetOnline as of 08/09/2022

The Yankees finally ended their five-game losing skid on Monday, beating the Mariners 9-4. However, that does not erase the fact that they have struggled since the All-Star break. Gerritt Cole has been one of their reliable pitchers but he’s struggled in his last three starts, giving up a total of 15 runs during that span. Cole allowed six runs with three home runs when he last faced Seattle six days ago.

Cole will be up against Luis Castillo who has done a terrific job in his last five starts, allowing just a total of 8 runs during that stretch. Castillo has conceded only four runs in his last two starts against the Yankees.

New York has an explosive offense but before Monday, they scored less than four runs in three out of four games played. Seattle is fighting for a wild card spot and has won five out of their last seven at home. I think that the Mariners want this win more badly.

I like the value on Seattle at plus money odds here.

Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Yankees vs Mariners Over/Under Trends

The under is 41-18-4 in the last 63 games played between these two teams. The total has gone under in 35 out of the last 53 head-to-head meetings played in Seattle.

New York Yankees over/under trends:

Over is 20-7-1 in the Yankees’ last 28 overall.
Over is 20-7-1 in the Yankees’ last 28 on grass.
Over is 18-7-2 in the Yankees’ last 27 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 10-4 in the Yankees’ last 14 Tuesday games.
Over is 10-4 in the Yankees’ last 14 road games versus a right-handed starter.
Over is 7-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 11 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 3-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 4 against the American League West.
Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games versus a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 8-2 in the Yankees’ last 10 Game 2s of a series.
Over is 12-4-1 in the Yankees’ last 17 games versus a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Seattle Mariners over/under trends:

Over is 4-1-2 in the Mariners’ last 7 overall.
Over is 3-0-1 in the Mariners’ last 4 versus American League East.
Over is 5-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 5-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 5-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Over is 9-2 in the Mariners’ last 11 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Over is 4-1 in the Mariners’ last 5 Tuesday games.
Over is 4-1-2 in the Mariners’ last 7 on grass.
Over is 4-1-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1-1 in the Mariners’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 20-7 in the Mariners’ last 27 home games versus a right-handed starter.
Under is 9-4-1 in the Mariners’ last 14 games against a right-handed starter.
Under is 24-11-1 in the Mariners’ last 36 home games.
Under is 23-11-1 in the Mariners’ last 35 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Over/Under Odds: Over 7 (-110), Under 7 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 08/09/2022

The Yankees are averaging 5.31 runs per game this season. That total increases to 5.33 runs per game when playing on the road. The Mariners are scoring an average of 4.05 runs per game this season and 3.93 runs per game at home.

These teams have combined to score an average of 8.3 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 11 runs per game in their last three meetings. New York has also conceded 4.8 runs per game in the last five road games where Gerritt Cole was their starter.

New York has seen the total go over seven runs in eight out of their last nine games played while Seattle has hit 7 or more runs in seven out of their last eight games played.

The Yankees are scoring the most runs per game this season and also lead the league in homers. With Judge hitting 44 on Monday, I expect him to get in the groove here. These two teams are aggressive on the bases and I can see both squads pushing to score runs here. New York’s lineup may have woken up already while the Mariners should be able to score a decent number of runs against the struggling Cole.

I’m picking these teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 7

Author: Bryan Simpson