Nuggets vs 76ers Odds and Pick (03/14)

Nuggets vs 76ers Odds and Pick (03/14)

Blake Daniels, March 14, 2022

The Denver Nuggets visit the Philadelphia 76ers at the Spectrum Center on Monday night in a game that will feature the top two betting favorites to win the 2022 NBA MVP award.

Nikola Jokic is the reigning MVP and right now, the Joker is second in the latest MVP betting boards, with only Joel Embiid ahead of him. Jokic’s Nuggets are 6th in the Western Conference standings with their 40-28 record but are just 1.5 games ahead of the 7th seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the West Standings after dropping their last two games

Meanwhile, Embiid’s Sixers are the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference with their 41-25 SU record and are trying to hold off the defending champions Milwaukee Bucks who are chasing them at 42-26 SU. The Sixers have won seven out of their last 10 games played and are coming off a narrow win over the Orlando Magic last Sunday. Philadelphia will travel home from Florida to host the Nuggets in the second of a back-to-back schedule.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets dropped their second straight game last Saturday when they were beaten by the Toronto Raptors 127-115. Nikola Jokic had another big night with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists while Will Barton and Jeff Green added 16 and 13 points, respectively. Bones Hyland also contributed 17 points off the bench in the losing effort.

Denver is the no. 3 top passing teams in the NBA at 27.3 assists per game. The Nuggets are 12th in scoring at 111.1 points per game scored and 20th in rebounding at 44.2 boards grabbed per contest. Denver is also 12th in scoring defense at 108.5 points per game allowed this season.

Moneyline Odds: Nuggets +175, 76ers -205
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/14/2022

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers weres supposed to have an easy outing on Sunday against the Magic but Orlando took the fight to them before losing 116-114. Now the Sixers travel home overnight to face Denver. Joel Embiid had a monster game with 35 points and 16 rebounds while James Harden and Tobias Harris added 25 and 25 points, respectively. Georges Niang also contributed 6 points off the Sixers’ bench.

Philadelphia ranks 20th in scoring at 108.4 points per game this season. The Sixers are 24th in passing at 23.1 assists per game and next to last in rebounding at 42.2 boards game. Philly ranks 7th overall in scoring defense at 106.4 points per game allowed this season.

Who Wins?

Denver is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. The Nuggets are 5-1 SU in their last six road games, 4-1 SU in their last five road games as betting underdogs, 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against opponents from the Eastern Conference, and 7-3 SU in their last 10 road games against Eastern Conference teams.

Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. The Sixers are 5-2 SU in their last seven games played at home, 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games as betting favorites, 7-2 SU in their last nine games against Western Conference teams, and 3-1 SU in their last four road games against Western Conference opponents.

Head to head, the Sixers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Nuggets. Philadelphia is also 5-1 SU in their last six home games against Denver.

The Nuggets are raring to get back on the winning track after back-to-back losses. They will have a good chance to do that here with the Sixers playing back-to-back games and getting pushed to the limit in Orlando by the woeful Magic.

Philadelphia started hot with Harden but in their last four games, they have two losses and nearly got hijacked by the lowly Magic on Sunday afternoon. I won’t blame you if you take the Sixers but I’ll take the plus money and pick the Nuggets to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets

Other Bets to Make

Denver is 0-4 ATS in their last four games played overall. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, and 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games. However, the Nuggets are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games as betting underdogs, 4-0 ATS in their last four road games as betting underdogs, 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road against an opponent with a winning home record, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.

Philadelphia is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Sixers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played at home as betting favorites, 3-1 ATS in their last four home games overall, 3-1 ATS in their last four home games as betting favorites of 5+ points, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Western Conference, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against Western Conference opponents, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games played on a Monday.

Head to head, the Sixers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Nuggets. They are also 3-1 ATS in their last four home games against Denver.

Spread Odds: Nuggets +2 (-105), 76ers -2 (-115)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/14/2022

The Nuggets are well-rested here and should have more motivation to win than the Sixers because they have lost back-to-back games and need to get back on track with games flying by.

Philadelphia will be making the long trip from Florida overnight. Although they beat the Magic, Orlando gave them a tougher than expected game which should make the Sixers feel a little tired here.

Denver’s perimeter defense should be able to limit Philadelphia’s three-point threat while the Sixers are just 13-20 ATS at home this season. Add in the rest factor that is going for Denver and I think we will have a close game here. I’m not saying Denver is going to win outright but five points seem to be too lopsided. I’m looking at a game that is decided by one possession so I’ll take the plus points and the underdogs.

Prediction: Nuggets +2

The total has gone under in five out of the last nine games played by the Nuggets. The under is 6-4 in Denver’s last 10 road games, 3-1 in their last four games as road underdogs, 3-2 in their last five road games against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 5-1 in their last six road games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 4-2 in their last six Monday road games, and 5-2 in their last seven road games overall.

The total has gone under in three out of the last four games played by the Sixers. The under is 4-3 in Philadelphia’s last seven home games, 5-0 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 4-1 in their last five games when playing on zero days rest, 13-5 in their last 18 Monday games, 7-3 in their last 10 games as home favorites, 4-3 in their last seven games against the Eastern Conference, and 4-3 in their last seven home games against opponents from the West.

Head to head, the total has gone under in five out of the last six meetings between these two teams. The under is also 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Philly.

Over/Under Odds: Over 219.5 (-110), Under 219.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/14/2022

The Sixers rank 9th in adjusted defensive rating, giving up only 106.4 points per game this season. Philly’s perimeter defense allows opponents to shoot just 34.1% from deep and they are facing a Denver team that isn’t among the best in three ball shooting. Jokic has been on fire but should have his hands full against Joel Embiid.

Denver meanwhile is in the upper half in adjusted defensive rating at no. 13 with their 108.5 points per game allowed this season. The Nuggets are also stingy when defending the three ball, allowing opponents to shoot just 34% which could be an issue for the Sixers’ shooters.

The Nuggets are 12th in the league in scoring but the Sixers are just 18th in that department, despite having explosive scorers. Philadelphia is coming off a 116 point effort against the Magic on Sunday and should be a little tired heading to this back-to-back contest.

The Sixers are an explosive scoring team but they have scored 100 or fewer points twice in their last four games so they can be slowed down and Denver has the defense to do that. Without Murray and MPJ, Denver can’t win a shootout so they will try to slow this game down and win with defense.

Prediction: Under 219.5

Author: Bryan Simpson