Padres vs Rockies Odds and Pick (07/11)

Padres vs Rockies Odds and Pick (07/11)

Blake Daniels, July 11, 2022

The San Diego Padres hit the road as they take on the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Monday night in Game 1 of a four-game set.

San Diego is 49-38 on the season and they are in 2nd place in the National League West division, 8 games behind the leaders Los Angeles Dodgers. The Padres are 3-7 in their last 10 games played. San Diego beat San Francisco in Games 1 and 2 of their previous series but lost the last two to end the series in a 2-2 split.

Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies are 38-48 on the season and they are in 4th place in the NL West Division. Colorado is a far 18.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and they have won just five out of their last 11 games played. The Rockies won their last series against the Diamondbacks 3-1.

San Diego Padres

San Diego is tied with Arizona, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay for 23rd place in baseball with a .684 OPS while only scoring 4.34 runs per game this season. Manny Machado has been their bright spot with an OPS of .915 with 14 home runs and 50 RBIs with seven stolen bases. However, Machado is just 3-23 in his last seven games played two home runs and four RBIs.

Sean Manea will take the mound for the Padres on Monday. The 30-year-old left-hander from Valparaiso, IN is 3-4 with an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.23 in 15 starts this season. Manea has conceded 41 earned runs on 74 hits with 92 strikeouts and 35 walks in a total of 88.1 innings pitched.

In his last start, Manea took the loss as he allowed four earned runs on eight hits in 3.1 innings pitched during an 8-2 defeat to the Seattle Mariner. The Padres are 5-3 in Manea’s last eight starts.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies rank 11th in the majors in OPS at .720 and are scoring 4.43 runs per game this year. First baseman CJ Cron has an OPS of .901 with 20 home runs and 66 RBIs with 23 walks and 91 strikeouts. His July slash line of .310/.375/.724 has been a huge help for Colorado this month.

Right-hander Jose Urena will open on top of the hill for the Rockies in Game 1. Urena has started only one game for the Rockies since he was acquired by the Rockies. The 30-year-old from the Dominican Republic started four games for Milwaukee and posted an ER of 3.52 and A WHIP of 1.57. For his career, Urena has an ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.38.

Urena was a no-decision in his first start for the Rockies. However, he pitched well as he allowed only one earned run on five hits in 6.2 innings during a 2-1 loss to the Dodgers. Urena’s teams are 2-3 in his five starts this season.

Padres vs Rockies Betting Prediction

The Padres are 0-5 in their last five games played against the Rockies. San Diego is also 16-36 in their last 52 meetings played in Colorado.

The Padres are:

4-10 in their last 14 overall.
2-7 in their last 9 road games.
4-10 in their last 14 games on grass.
22-9 in their last 31 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
19-40 in their last 59 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
19-40 in their last 59 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
4-9 in their last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
4-10 in their last 14 games on grass.
3-8 in their last 11 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
7-19 in their last 26 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
2-7 in their last 9 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
1-4 in their last 5 Games 1s of a series.
1-4 in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing record.
1-7 in their last 8 games versus a right-handed starter.
0-5 in their last 5 road games opposite a right-handed starter.

The Rockies are:

7-2 in their last 9 home games.
5-1 in their last 6 home games versus a left-handed starter.
5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record.
7-2 in their last 9 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
7-2 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
22-8 in their last 30 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
25-10 in their last 35 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
30-64 in their last 94 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
5-11 in their last 16 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
6-14 in their last 20 Games 1s of a series.
2-5 in their last 7 Monday games.
6-17 in their last 23 games following a win.
1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
0-4 in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.

Moneyline Odds: Padres -145, Rockies +134
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/11/2022

Urena is making his second start for the Rockies and his sixth overall for the season and he has a career ERA of 4.73. On the other hand, Manea is 1-1 with an ERA of 3.88 in eight starts on the road this season.

The Padres rank 13th in baseball with a reliever ERA of 3.67. Meanwhile, the Rockies have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA at 4.68 this season. During the last 30 days, San Diego has also drawn a total of 92 walks while the Rockies have gotten 82 walks during that stretch.

Manea was roughed up in his last start but he should be able to keep the Padres in the game while the San Diego bats work their way to score runs. On the other hand, Urena looked solid during his first start with the team but it remains to be seen if he can carry that over at home as he’s struggled in his previous two outings at Mile High. I’m going with the Padres here.

Prediction: San Diego Padres

Padres vs Rockies Over/Under Predictions

The total has gone under in seven out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Colorado.

San Diego Padres over/under trends:

Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 road games.
Under is 5-1 in the Padres’ last 6 road games versus a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 6-2-1 in the Padres’ last 9 Monday games.
Under is 6-2 in the Padres’ last 8 versus National League West.
Under is 8-3 in the Padres’ last 11 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 10-4 in the Padres’ last 14 games versus a right-handed starter.
Under is 16-7-1 in the Padres’ last 24 games following a loss.
Over is 4-0 in the Padres’ last 4 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 opposite a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5

Colorado Rockies over/under trends:

Over is 3-0-2 in the Rockies’ last 5 home games.
Over is 3-0-3 in the Rockies’ last 6 games following a win.
Over is 3-0-2 in the Rockies’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 3-0-2 in the Rockies’ last 5 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 4-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 4-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 13-4 in the Rockies’ last 17 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 3-1-2 in the Rockies’ last 6 games against a left-handed starter.
Over is 42-17-1 in the Rockies’ last 60 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 41-20-6 in the Rockies’ last 67 opposite a team with a winning record.
Under is 6-2-2 in the Rockies’ last 10 home games versus a team with a winning record.
Under is 3-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 Game 1s of a series.
Under is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Under is 8-1 in the Rockies’ last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 3-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 4 Monday games.
Under is 4-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Over/Under Odds: Over 10.5 (-110), Under 10.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/11/2022

San Diego is scoring an average of 4.40 runs per game this season, 15th in the league. They are however 2nd in the majors with an average of 5.11 runs per game scored at home. Their game has a combined score of 8.21 runs but that total goes up to 9.16 runs per game on the road.

Meanwhile, the Rockies rank 14th in scoring at 4.45 runs per game this season. However, they rank 1st in the majors with an average of 5.77 runs per game at home this season. Their average total score is 9.83 runs per game this season. However, that total climbs to 11.38 runs per game when playing at Coors Field.

With both teams scoring well and the two starters shaky in their recent outings. I expect both teams to score more than enough runs to push the score over the posted total.

Prediction: Over 10.5

Author: Bryan Simpson