Blake Daniels, March 28, 2022
The San Antonio Spurs head to the Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets on Monday night.
San Antonio’s playoff hopes got a boost when the Pelicans and Lakers played on Sunday. That meant that the Spurs would get to within one game of whoever lost that game. Los Angeles blew a 23-point lead and lost. Now they are just one game ahead of the Spurs with San Antonio having the tie-breaker.
A win will put San Antonio within one-half game and put more pressure on the embattled Lakers. However, the Spurs must beat a Houston team that’s won three out of its last four games played and which head to this match up with back-to-back wins. The Rockets have nothing but pride to play for as they are tied for the worst record in the league and maybe better having a loss than a win here, to get the better draft position.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played and have won three in a row and four out of their last five overall. In their last game, the Spurs defeated the New Orleans Pelicans 107-103 behind 21 points from Keldon Johnson and 18 points from Josh Richardson. Dejounte Murray registered yet another triple double with 15 points 11 rebounds, and 13 assists.
San Antonio ranks 8th in scoring at 112.9 points per game and is 9th in rebounding at no. 1 in passing at 28.0 assists per game. The Spurs rank 24th in scoring defense at 113.2 points per game allowed this season.
Moneyline Odds: Spurs -305, Rockets +195
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/28/2022
Don’t look now but the Rockets have won three out of their last four games and have back-to-back wins over the Blazers heading to this contest. Houston beat Portland by 19 and 17 points in those games. Rookies Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green scored 27 and 25 points, respectively while also getting 13 points and 6 rebounds from Kevin Porter Jr. K.J. Martin and Dennis Schroder each scored 10 off the bench.
The Rockets are 19th in the league in scoring at 109.0 points per game this season. Houston is 21st in passing at 23.5 assists per game and they are last in the league in rebounding at 42.0 boards grabbed per contest. The Rockets are dead-last in scoring defense at 117.6 points per game allowed.
The Spurs are 4-1 SU in their last five games played. San Antonio is 3-0 SU in their last three road games and 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Western Conference. Houston is 5-15 SU in their last 20 games played. The Rockets are 2-4 SU in their last six games played at home, and 4-16 SU in their last 20 games against the Western Conference.
Head to head, the Spurs are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Rockets, including 3-1 SU in their last four meetings.
Make no mistake, the Rockets have won two straight games and are playing well right now. But San Antonio has also won four out of its last five games played and between these two teams, it’s the Spurs who have more motive to win this game.
With the Los Angeles Lakers losing on Sunday to the New Orleans Pelicans, the former drops to 10th in the Western Conference team standings and the Spurs are just within one game of them. That means San Antonio’s bid to make the play-in tournament isn’t over yet, not especially with them having the tiebreaker against the Lakers.
The Rockets have long been eliminated from playoff contention and are the worst team in the league right now. Houston has shown some flashes of brilliance, as they have in their previous two games but since their 7-game winning streak in November, they have not won three straight games again this season.
San Antonio blew out Houston by 30 and 25 points in their last two meetings, both this season, and I don’t see why the same will not happen. The Spurs are playing with a purpose and just beat the Warriors and Pelicans on the road last week. Look for Dejounte Murray to have another big game against a Houston team that has no one to stop him. Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
Other Bets to Make
San Antonio is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six Monday games, 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against an opponent with a winning percentage below .400, 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after an ATS win, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on one day rest.
They are, however, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as road favorites, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games against an opponent with a losing home record, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent with a losing SU record, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as betting favorites, and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.
Houston is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games played. The Rockets are 20-41 ATS in their last 61 games against an opponent with a losing SU record, 18-40 ATS in their last 58 games as home underdogs, 13-32 ATS in their last 45 games as betting underdogs, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 8-22 ATS in their last 30 Monday games, 9-27 ATS in their last 36 home games against an opponent with a losing record, and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after an ATS win.
Spread Odds: Spurs -6.5 (-110), Rockets +6.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/28/2022
The Spurs have outscored the Rockets by an average margin of 7.2 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, and 17 points per game in their last three games played. San Antonio won their last two meetings by 25 points and 30 points.
Houston is 3-1 SU in their last four games played but overall, they have won four times in their last six games played. All their six losses during that span have been by double-digits.
Meanwhile, the Spurs have covered the betting spread in each of their last three games played, including as a -11.5 against OKC and -9.5 against Portland. San Antonio is 4-3-1 ATS as road favorites and has an average margin of victory of 9.0 points per game under such conditions.
Again, the Spurs need to win this game if they want to stay alive in the playoff hunt. Knowing Coach Pop, he’s going to get his boys ready to play in this crucial game. Look for Dejounte Muray to lea the charge again.
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs -6.5
The total has gone under in eight out of the last 10 games played by the Spurs. The under is 4-1 in their last five games played on the road, 8-1 in their last nine Monday games, 15-3 in their last 18 games after an ATS win, 5-1 in their last six games as betting favorites,4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage worse than .400, 5-2 in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, 7-2 in their last nine games when allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 7-2 in their last nine games when scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, and 4-1 in their last five road games.
The total has gone under in each of the last six games played by the Rockets. The under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four games after an ATS win, 4-0 in their last four games as betting underdogs, 4-0 in their last four games when playing on one day rest, 4-1 in their last five games as home underdogs, 4-1-1 in their last six home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 5-2 in their last seven games after a straight-up win, 6-0 in their last six games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous games and 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points.
Head to head, the total has gone under in 11 out of the last 16 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 5-1 in the last six meetings in Houston.
Over/Under Odds: Over 237.5 (-110), Under 237.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 03/28/2022
These two teams play with two of the fastest paces in the entire NBA. Houston owns the NBA’s worst scoring defense at 117.6 points per game while the Spurs have the 7th worst scoring defense at 113.2 points per game allowed. But even if you add their averages, it’s just 230.8 points per game.
In San Antonio’s last five games, the total has averaged just over 222 points per game. Meanwhile, the Rockets are even putting up a lower total with just 215.4 points per game. These teams have not hit 237.5 points in any of their games this season.
The Spurs have hit over 237 points only twice in their last 10 games and the Rockets just thrice Both are high-scoring teams but I think the total is just too high, even for these poor defensive teams. Give me the under.
Prediction: Under 237.5