Warriors at Mavericks Odds & Pick (05/24)

Warriors at Mavericks Odds & Pick (05/24)

Blake Daniels, May 24, 2022

he Golden State Warriors look to become the first team since Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls to make six Finals appearances during an 8-year span. The Dubs will accomplish that feat if they beat the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night.

Golden State defeated Dallas 109-100 in Game 3 to take a 3-0 series lead in the 2022 Western Conference Finals. Steph Curry led the Warriors with 31 points while Andrew Wiggins added 27 to lead the Warriors. Golden State unleashed another big third quarter and withstood another massive performance by Luka Doncic.

Dallas also got big games from Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson but their woeful three-point shooting cost them another game in the series. The Mavericks missed their first seven three-point attempts and finished a dismal 13-45 or 28.9%. Reggie Bullock and Max Strus combined to shoot 0-12 from deep in Game 3. In a similar paltry three-point outing in Game 1,

No team in the history of the NBA playoffs has come back from a 0-3 deficit to win the series, putting Dallas in a tough spot right now. But the Mavs have no choice but to take it one game at a time, beginning with Game 4.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are on the cusp of another appearance in the NBA Finals and a chance to match a record set by Michael Jordan’s Bulls. But while the Warriors have been dominant in the Steve Kerr era with 20 wins in 22 playoff series, they have not been as good in completing the sweep. The Dubs are just 6-4 when leading a series 3-0 and one of those losses came against the Denver Nuggets in the opening round of the playoffs.

Winning the third quarter has been the key to this series. Golden State has outscored Dallas 89-58 in the third quarter of the series. They have held the Mavs to 36.8% shooting in the third quarter while hitting 53.0% of their own shots. In Game 3, the Dubs utilized a 30-21 third quarter run to put the game away for good.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks wasted another massive performance by Luka Doncic who has scored 42 and 40 points in the last two games of the series. Doncic is one 40-point game away from joining Hakeem Olajuwon and Michael Jordan as the only players in NBA history to score three consecutive 40-point games in the postseason. But more than that, Doncic will want his team to stay alive in the playoffs.

Dallas is up against impressive odds. No team in the history of the NBA playoffs has come back from a 0-3 deficit to win a series. Out of 146 teams that were down 0-3 in an NBA playoff series, only three have forced a Game 7 and none since the Portland Trail Blazers in 2013. The Mavs will have to take it one game at a time. But they need to make their three-pointers in Game 4 to have a chance to win.

Who Wins?

The Warriors have won four out of their last six games played against the Mavericks. However, Dallas has won three out of its last four home games played against Golden State.

Golden State are:
Dallas are:

6-1 SU in their last seven games played.
2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road.
16-3 SU in their last 19 games against the Western Conference.
9-2 SU in their last 11 games against the Southwest Division.

2-4 SU in their last six games played.
3-1 SU in their last four games played at home.

13-2 SU in their last 15 games as betting favorites.

5-2 SU in their last seven Tuesday home games.

Moneyline Odds: Warriors -105, Mavericks -115
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/24/2022

The Warriors have the Mavs on the edge right now. But remember how Dallas clawed back against Phoenix. This team may look down right now but you can never underestimate this group. Luka Doncic is having a phenomenal postseason and the Mavs have gotten the support from Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson. However, the Mavs are a team that lives and dies with the three-point shot.

Unfortunately for them, the Warriors are the better offensive team than them and have more firepower from three-point range. Golden State is a team that Dallas cannot match weapon for weapon when it comes to three-point shooting. The Dubs have an offense that can explode at any given moment in the game. The Warriors also have the playoff experience to finish the job. Sure, the Dubs may not have a good record in sweeping a series. But this one takes them back to the Finals and when the stakes are high, the big-time players like Curry, Thompson, and Green will deliver. It has been an excellent run for the Mavs. But it ends here.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Spread Betting Predictions

The Warriors are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Mavericks. Golden State is also 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings in Dallas.

The Warriors are:

4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning straight up record.

>4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.

9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.

15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Conference Finals games.

44-22 ATS in their last 66 games against the Western Conference.

17-15 ATS in 32 home games against the Eastern Conference.

5-2 ATS in their last seven games played in May.

1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against an opponent with a winning home record.

1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

The Mavericks are:

8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

44-24 ATS in their last 68 games against the Western Conference.

25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games against the Western Conference.

5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.

10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.

3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.

13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

19-9 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss.

38-18 ATS in their last 56 games following a straight-up loss.

1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.

Spread Odds: Warriors +1 (-114), Mavericks -1 (-106)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/24/2022

The Warriors have been red hot in the Western Conference Finals. They are shooting 53.1% from the field and scoring an average of 115.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are scoring just 105.3 points per game in the playoffs and have been held to 100 or fewer points twice in three games.

Dallas shot just 13-45 from three-point distance or 28.9% in Game 3. The Mavs are better than that and should shoot better in Game 4. However, the Warriors were also just 11-32 or 34.4% from deep. Obviously, they too are much better than that from three-point distance. Like the Mavs, I expect the Dubs to shoot better from the outside. Having said those, I don’t think that Dallas will have many advantages in Game 4. Golden State is such a veteran team that can win on the road.

Prediction: Warriors +1

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks Over/Under Betting Predictions

The total has gone over in 13 out of the last 19 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is also 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Dallas.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

Under is 4-0 in the Warriors’ last 4 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Under is 4-0 in the Warriors’ last 4 games as an underdog.

Under is 5-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Under is 9-3 in the Warriors’ last 12 Conference Finals games.

Under is 39-14 in the Warriors’ last 53 Tuesday games.

Under is 35-29-2 in their last 66 games against an opponent from the Western Conference.

Over is 17-15 in their last 32 road games against the Western Conference.

Over is 11-4 in the Warriors’ last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Over is 5-2 in the Warriors’ last 7 road games.

Over is 9-4 in the Warriors’ last 13 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Dallas Mavericks over/under trends:

Under is 6-2 in the Mavericks’ last 8 games played overall.

Under is 4-0 in the Mavericks’ last 4 games as a favorite.

Under is 4-0 in the Mavericks’ last 4 playoff games as a favorite.

Under is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Under is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 Tuesday games.

Under is 20-7 in the Mavericks’ last 27 games as a home favorite.

Under is 37-13-1 in the Mavericks’ last 51 home games.

Under is 17-7 in the Mavericks’ last 24 games following an ATS loss.

Under is 36-16 in the Mavericks’ last 52 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

Under is 35-16 in the Mavericks’ last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 34-16-1 in the Mavericks’ last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over/Under Odds: Over 215.5 (-110), Under 215.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/24/2022

These teams have combined to score an average of 217.0 points per game in this series and 216.2 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. However, the total has gone under twice in the three games played in the series and the Mavs have averaged only 101.7 points per game in this series.

Golden State only has the 7th best defense in the playoffs but in the Western Conference Finals, their defense has been outstanding. The Dubs have locked down the Mavs’ three-point shooting in two of the three games in this series. With a trip to the Finals on the line, look for the Warriors to play good defense and shut down the Dallas outside sniping. Look for another terrific defensive effort from the Warriors.

Prediction: Under 215.5

Author: Bryan Simpson