Warriors vs Grizzlies Odds (05/03)

Warriors vs Grizzlies Odds (05/03)

Blake Daniels, May 3, 2022

The Golden State Warriors look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead when they head to the FedEx Forum on Tuesday night to take on the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 2 of their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinals series.

Golden State took Game 2 by the smallest of margins, winning the game by a solitary point 117-116. The Warriors were down by two in the final minute of the game when Klay Thompson hit a three-pointer to give the Dubs the one-point lead. Memphis had a chance to win the game with their final play but Ja Morant’s driving left-handed layup did not go in against Thompson’s defense. Now the Grizzlies hope to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole after already giving up homecourt advantage to the Dubs.

Golden State Warriors

The narrative heading to the series was Memphis’ backcourt as the new best backcourt in the NBA. Golden State proved them wrong in Game 1 as it was Steph Curry and Klay Thompson who delivered the big plays despite having poor shooting nights. Golden State was led by Jordan Poole who scored a career playoff-high 31 points to lead the Warriors. Golden State even played without Draymond Green in the second half after he was ejected with a Flagrant 2.

Curry still finished with 24 points while Thompson added 15, including the game-winning three-pointer. Andrew Wiggins also had a good game with 17 for the Warriors who showed their championship experience and DNA to pull off a playoff come back and win a game that went down to its final play.

Moneyline Odds: Warriors -130, Grizzlies +110
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/03/2022

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis didn’t just miss the final shot to steal the game, they blew an early lead and a six-point halftime advantage. Jaren Jackson had a playoff career-high with 33 points and was 6-9 from deep while Ja Morant had 34 points, 10 assists, and 9 rebounds in a near triple-double effort. However, they couldn’t pull it off in the end as the Warriors’ experience was too much.

Desmond Bane had a disappointing performance with only nine points on 3-10 shooting including 1-5 from behind the three-point area. Bane averaged over 20 points per game in their first round series against Denver. Tyus Jones scored only 2 points and was a -9 for the Grizzlies in Game 1. Poole outscored the entire Memphis Bench 31-30 so that has to change too if Memphis wants to head to Golden State with a 1-1 tie.

Who Wins?

The Warriors are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played. Golden State is 5-1 SU in their last six games played on the road, 16-13 SU in their last 29 road games against opponents from the Western Conference, and 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against Western Conference teams.

The Grizzlies are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games played. Memphis is 16-4 SU in their last 20 games played at home, 11-5 SU in their last 16 games against an opponent from the Western Conference, and 22-8 SU in their last 30 home games against teams from the Western Conference.

Head to head, Memphis Grizzlies are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Golden State Warriors.

Give credit to the Memphis Grizzlies for taking the Warriors down the stretch in Game 1. Ja Morant had the opportunity to win the game but he missed a left-handed layup. That was the same basket he made to win a game in the previous series but while Ja didn’t have much trouble against Pat Beverley and the Minnesota guards, he looked a little spent in the end game against GP2. Jaren Jackson Jr. also had a big game but if Draymond Green doesn’t get ejected in Game 2, Jackson’s night won’t be easy as well.

Golden State showed its poise when it rallied to beat Memphis in Game 1. Klay Thompson missed two free throws in the closing seconds but those are probably the only times we’ll see him miss in the series. Thompson redeemed himself by playing honest defense on Morant’s final shot which missed and allowed the Dubs to escape with a win.

Steph Curry also had a poor shooting night but the beauty about the 2022 Warriors is that there is a Jordan Poole who can step up when the brothers aren’t splashing. I like the Grizzlies to win this game as they are a confident group that doesn’t fear any team. However, the Warriors look poised to return to the title picture this season. They have the experience and the manpower to do so.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Other Bets to Make

Golden State is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games played. The Warriors are 3-3 ATS in their last six road games, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played against the Southwest Division, 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games as playoff favorites, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games after an ATS loss, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning percentage better than .600, 1-4 ATS in their last five Conference semifinals games, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus an opponent with a winning home record.

Memphis is 4-2 ATS in their last six games played. The Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against teams from the Pacific Division, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home betting underdogs, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games when playing on one day rest, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 Tuesday games, 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as betting underdogs, 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.

Spread Odds: Warriors -2 (-110), Grizzlies +2 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/03/2022

The Warriors have rediscovered the form that made them the best team at the start of the season. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have had their share of struggles in these playoff games but they have been able to deliver when they needed it most.

The emergence of Jordan Poole as a top-scoring option has given Curry and Thompson the margin of error to struggle at times, with Poole picking up the slack. However, as in Game 1, the Splash Brother delivered the plays that mattered in the end game, both on offense and defense.

Memphis has plenty of confidence in their game and they believe they can beat the Warriors. However, Golden State’s experience looked too much in Game 1, and with just a couple of days in between games, I’m not sure if they can make the right adjustments.

I expect Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. to come up with big numbers again. However, with Gary Payton II and Draymond Greed defending them respectively, they will have to earn their points, which will be a tiring effort. As we saw in the last game, Morant didn’t have the same stuff in the end game as he had in the early goings.

Prediction: Warriors -2

The total has gone over in six out of the last seven games played by the Warriors. The over is 6-2 in their last eight May games, 6-0 in their last six games after a straight-up win, 4-0 in their last four games as road favorites, 6-1 in their last seven games when their opponent scores and allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 6-1 in their last seven games as betting favorites, 6-1 in their last seven games as playoff favorites, 4-1-1 in their last six Conference semifinals games, 16-5 in their last 21 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after an ATS loss, and 4-0 in their last four road games.

The total has gone over in six out of the last Tuesday games played by Memphis. The over is 6-0 in their last six May games, 12-1 in their last 13 games as playoff underdogs, 5-1 in their last six games as home underdogs, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS win, 4-1 in their last five games as underdogs, 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 15-7-1 in their last 23 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, and 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Over/Under Odds: Over 227.5 (-110), Under 227.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/03/2022

These two teams combined to score 233 points in Game 1 so the total has gone from 223.5 in Game 1 to 227.5 in Game 2. Those who favor the under say that if Draymond Green plays a full game then this one is likely hitting the under 227.5 However, the Dubs went over 227.5 four times in five games against Denver in the opening round and Green played in that series.

What we’re seeing in the playoffs is Golden State relying heavily on the scoring prowess of the Splash Brothers and Jordan Poole to get them victories. No question the Dubs were one of the best defensive teams during the regular season but with the team now healthy, they have unleashed their scoring ability in the playoffs.

The Warriors are the top-scoring team in the postseason at 117.8 points per game. Guess who’s second? Memphis at 114.9. Ok, so this is the playoffs where defense takes a premium. But when you have these two explosive scoring teams, you have to trust the over.

Prediction: Over 227.5

Author: Bryan Simpson