Blake Daniels, May 17, 2022
The New York Yankees return to Camden Yards on Tuesday night for the second game of their current series with the Baltimore Orioles.
New York won the series opener 6-2 to improve to 26-9 SU on the season and 12-5 SU away from Yankee Stadium. Jose Trevino became the first New York catcher to hit a home run this season with a three-run shot in the fourth inning. Meanwhile, Luis Severino pitched six innings and allowed only one hit for the Yankees.
The Yankees have won 19 out of their last 22 games played and are off to one of the best 35-game starts in the rich history of the franchise. Only the Yankees’ 1928 and 1939 at 28-7 started better than the current group.
The win extended the Yankees’ lead over the Tampa Bay Rays in the tough AL East to 5 ½ games, matching the biggest division lead currently held by their cross-town rivals Mets
Baltimore dropped to 14-22 SU overall and 9-8 SU at home with Monday’s loss. The Orioles saw Kyle Bradish allow four runs on eight hits in 4 ⅓ innings in his fourth career start. Anthony Santander homered twice for Baltimore’s two runs in the game. Outside Santander, the Orioles managed only one other hit.
New York Yankees
Jameson Taillon will open on top of the hill for the Yankees. So far, Taillon has posted a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 2.93 and a WHIP of 1.17 in six starts. The 30-year-old right-hander has pitched in a total of 30.2 innings and has allowed 10 runs with three home runs on 33 hits with three walks and 25 strikeouts.
In his last two starts against the Toronto Blue Jays, Taillon allowed only three earned runs on 11 hits and one walk over 11.1 innings of work. The Yankees won both games and the team is 5-0 in his last five starts.
The Yankees rank third in OPS at .742 and they are 9th in the Majors in hitting at .242. They are tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the most home runs produced so far this season with 49 and they are led by Aaron Judge who has 12 home runs, 27 RBI, and a batting average of .292. Giancarlo Stanton leads the team with 31 RBI and has 10 home runs.
Facing Taillon will be Spencer Watkins who is 0-1 with an ERA of 5.19 and a WHIP of 1.58 in a total of six starts this season. The 29-year-old right-hander from Phoenix, Arizona has pitched in a total of 26.0 innings this season and has allowed 18 runs with four home runs on 29 hits with 12 walks and 13 strikeouts.
Watkins did not allow more than three earned runs in each of his five starts but was bombarded with seven against the Arizona Cardinals last Wednesday. He lasted only 3.2 innings in that outing with eight hits surrendered and two free passes are given.
The Orioles rank 20th in batting average at .228 and they are also ranked only 22nd in OPS at .646. Cedric Mullins leads Baltimore with five home runs while Ryan Mountcastle leads the team with 16 RBI while also scoring four home runs. Austin Hays has 12 RBI and two home runs while leading the team with a batting average of .291.
The Yankees are 38-13 in their last 51 games played against the Orioles. New York is also 25-9 in their last 34 games played in Baltimore.
The Yankees are:
38-16 in their last 54 overall.
8-2 in their last 10 road games.
17-5 in their last 22 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
20-6 in their last 26 games as a favorite.
6-2 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
38-13 in their last 51 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
42-15 in their last 57 Game 2 of a series.
19-7 in their last 26 games versus a right-handed starter.
6-0 in their last 6 road games against a right-handed starter.
7-1 in their last 8 games versus an opponent from the American League East.
8-2 in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record.
5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
8-3 in their last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
37-15 in their last 52 Tuesday games.
35-16 in their last 51 games on grass.
35-16 in their last 51 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
The Orioles are:
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Orioles are 29-59 in their last 88 Tuesday games.
Orioles are 16-33 in their last 49 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Orioles are 19-42 in their last 61 home games versus a right-handed starter.
Orioles are 28-64 in their last 92 overall.
Orioles are 25-60 in their last 85 games as an underdog.
Or15-36 in their last 51 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
28-72 in their last 100 games against a right-handed starter.
19-56 in their last 75 Games 2s of a series.
12-40 in their last 52 against an opponent from the American League East.
13-45 in their last 58 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
12-57 in their last 69 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
0-9 in their last 9 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Moneyline Odds: Yankees -215, Orioles +196
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/17/2022
The Yankees are red hot right now and have won eight out of their last 10 games played, including a 6-2 win over the Orioles on Monday night. New York isn’t just blasting home runs right now but they are clicking on all cylinders: hitting, starting pitching, and bullpen.
Taillon has been terrific in his last two starts which were arguably his best games of the season. He pitched into the sixth inning in both starts, which has spelled trouble for opponents because of the Yankees’ outstanding bullpen. Taillon’s strikeout numbers are down this season but remember that he fanned 17 Baltimore batters in his first two starts against them last season.
Watkins has allowed three home runs in four starts so I expect the Yankees’ power hitters to torch him with long bombs in this game which will be played in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. But more than New York home runs, Watkins’ biggest problem here is his inconsistency in throwing strikes.
New York should have no problem hitting a couple of homers on Tuesday plus expect them to have one or two innings where they score multiple runs. The bottom line is that the New York offense is clicking and it’s explosive. You might want to consider betting on the Yankees at the runline of -1.5 at a better price of -127. But if not, roll with the Bronx Bombers on the Moneyline at -215 odds.
Prediction: New York Yankees -215
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles 5/17/22 Over/Under Prediction
The total has gone under in seven out of the last nine meetings between these two teams. The under is 6-0 in their last six games played in Baltimore.
New York Yankees over/under trends:
Under is 2-0-1 in the Yankees’ last three games played.
Under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games as a road favorite.
Under is 12-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 16 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 10-3 in the Yankees’ last 13 road games against a team with a losing record.
Under is 7-3 in the Yankees’ last 10 games as the betting favorite.
Under is 35-17-2 in the Yankees’ last 54 versus an opponent from the American League East.
Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 18-7-2 in the Yankees’ last 27 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 15-7-2 in the Yankees’ last 24 Tuesday games.
Baltimore Orioles over/under trends:
Under is 17-4-1 in the Orioles’ last 22 games as a home underdog.
Under is 7-2-1 in the Orioles’ last 10 Tuesday games.
Under is 7-2-2 in the Orioles’ last 11 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 19-6-1 in the Orioles’ last 26 home games.
Under is 9-3 in the Orioles’ last 12 games played against the. American League East.
Under is 17-6-3 in the Orioles’ last 26 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 22-8 in the Orioles’ last 30 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 18-7-4 in the Orioles’ last 29 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 34-14-3 in the Orioles’ last 51 games as the betting underdog.
Under is 36-15-3 in the Orioles’ last 54 overall.
Under is 9-4 in the Orioles’ last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 9-4 in the Orioles’ last 13 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 34-16-3 in the Orioles’ last 53 on grass.
Over is 4-1 in theOrioles’ last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Over/Under Odds: Over 8.5 (-105), Under 8.5 (-115)
Odds from BetOnline as of 05/17/2022
These two teams have combined to score an average of 8.6 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 10 runs per game in their most recent three encounters. However, the under is 20-14-1 in New York’s 35 games played this season and the under is also 24-10-2 in Baltimore’s 36 games played this season. The under is also a combined 12-6-2 in the last 10 games of both teams combined.
The Yankees’ offense has looked impressive this season. They rank 5th in the majors at 4.91 runs per game and 9th in batting average at .242 and can score in more ways than just simply hitting the ball out of the ballpark.
Taillon has been a good pitcher for the Yankees this season. However, the Orioles are hitting at an impressive .264 in 53 at-bats against him. Taillon has faced the Orioles twice this season and they have scored four total runs in 9.1 innings pitched.
The Yankees should have a pair of big innings against Watkins and get some good looks against a Baltimore bullpen that is much inferior to theirs. I expect several long balls with runners on base for the Yankees. I like these teams to hit the over.
Prediction: Over 8.5