Blake Daniels, June 20, 2022
The Detroit Tigers travel to Fenway Park to visit the Boston Red Sox in a 3-game series that begins on Monday.
Detroit is 26-40 on the season and they are in 4th place in the AL Central Division. The Tigers are well off the pace and are currently 11 games behind the division leaders Minnesota Twins. They have won two in a row but are just 3-7 in their last 10 games played overall.
Boston is 36-31 this campaign and they are also in 4th place in the American League East Division. The Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 games played and have won five out of their last seven games played. Boston is 13.5 games behind the division leaders New York Yankees.
These teams have played thrice this season with the Red Sox leading the series 2-1 after winning their last two head-to-head meetings.
The Detroit Tigers head to Fenway Park well below the .500 mark with a run differential of close to 100. The reason? An impotent offense that has scored only 190 runs so far this season and ranks at the bottom in most offensive statistical categories. Detroit is coming off games where they scored 7 and 14 runs against the Rangers but in the eight games before that, they scored only 11 total runs.
Even after Saturday’s 14-game explosion, the Tigers are scoring just an average of 2.82 runs per game this season. They however hope that their current offensive explosion will continue at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
Right-hander Alex Faedo will open the series for the Tigers. The 26-year-old from Tampa, Florida is 1-3 with an ERA of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.40 in 8 starts. He has pitched in a total of 40 innings pitched and has allowed 19 earned runs on 44 hits with 33 strikeouts and 11 walks.
In his last start, Faedo lasted only 3.0 innings and allowed 7 runs on nine hits during a 13-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Prior to that loss, the Tigers were 4-1 in Faedo’s last five starts.
Boston Red Sox
It looked as if Alex Cora‘s magic had run out when the Red Sox were at the bottom of their division earlier this season. However, the Red Sox are starting to pick up wins and have won 14 out of their last 16. They are still very far from the top but they are slowly making their move behind third-baseman Rafael Devers who is having another All-Star season which makes him among the early MVP candidates.
Boston’s bats have taken much of the credit for their current hot streak. However, the pitching staff has done its job as well in the team’s recent success. Boston now ranks 6th in team ERA and leads the league in complete games.
Josh Winkowski will open on top of the mound for the Red Sox. The 23-year-old right-hander from Toledo, Ohio is 1-1 with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.75 in two starts this season. Wincowski has pitched in a total of 8 innings with four earned runs allowed on 10 hits with seven strikeouts and four walks.
He picked up his first win of the season in his last start during a 10-1 win over the Oakland Athletics. In that game, Winckowski threw five scoreless innings with four hits allowed. He struck out three hitters and walked one. Wincowski lasted only 3.0 innings while allowing four runs on six hits.
Tigers vs Red Sox Predictions
The Tigers are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams. Detroit is also 1-4 in their last five meetings in Boston.
The Tigers are:
1-6 in their last 7 overall.
7-18 in their last 25 road games.
1-6 in their last 7 games on grass.
1-7 in their last 8 versus the American League East.
0-5 in their last 5 games against a right-handed starter.
0-6 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
20-41 in their last 61 Monday games.
99-205 in their last 304 against a team with a winning record.
69-146 in their last 215 road games versus a right-handed starter.
48-108 in their last 156 road games against an opponent with a winning record.
6-15 in their last 21 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
3-8 in their last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
6-18 in their last 24 games as a road underdog.
1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
1-4 in their last 5 Game 1s of a series.
1-4 in their last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
The Red Sox are:
Red Sox are 12-4 in their last 16 overall.
Red Sox are 12-4 in their last 16 games on grass.
Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Red Sox are 89-41 in their last 130 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 Game 1s of a series.
Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 against the American League Central.
Moneyline Odds: Tigers +166, Red Sox -181
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/20/2022
The Red Sox head to this series on a roll as Boston has won 12 out of its last 16 games played. They are getting very good offensive production from their infield and Rafael Devers is making an early case for MVP honors with a .328 batting average and 16 home runs.
The Tigers have scored a total of 21 runs in their last two games, both wins against the Texas Rangers. However, the Detroit Tigers’ offense has been mediocre at its best this season.
Wincowski is getting another crack after shutting out the Athletics last week and will be facing a similar lineup. Detroit ranks last in home runs, slugging percentage, and runs per game. I’m expecting another paltry effort from the Tigers on the plate, which should give the Red Sox a good path to victory.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Tigers vs Red Sox Over/Under Predictions
The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played between the Tigers and Red Sox. The over is 5-0 in their last five meetings in Boston.
Detroit Tigers over/under trends:
Under is 5-0-1 in the Tigers’ last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 5-1 in the Tigers’ last 6 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 4-1 in the Tigers’ last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 11-3-1 in the Tigers’ last 15 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 23-8-1 in the Tigers’ last 32 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in the Tigers’ last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 34-15-2 in the Tigers’ last 51 games as a road underdog.
Under is 34-16-2 in the Tigers’ last 52 vs. American League East.
Under is 33-16-2 in the Tigers’ last 51 road games.
Under is 49-24-3 in the Tigers’ last 76 on grass.
Over is 6-1-1 in the Tigers’ last 8 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 4-1 in the Tigers’ last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Boston Red Sox over/under trends:
Under is 6-3 in the Red Sox’s last nine games against the American League Central Division.
Under is 31-23-6 in the Red Sox’s last 60 games against the American League
Under is 14-12-2 in the Red Sox’s last 28 home games against the American League.
Under is 6-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 8 home games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
Under is 4-1-2 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
Under is 5-2-1 in the Red Sox’s last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 27-13-2 in the Red Sox’s last 42 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 4-1 in the Red Sox’s last five games played.
Over is 4-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 9-4-1 in the Red Sox’s last 14 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 11-5-1 in the Red Sox’s last 17 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over/Under Odds: Over 9.5 (-110), Under 9.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/20/2022
Rookie starter Alex Faedo is coming off a tough week as he gave up seven runs on nine hits in just three innings of work against the White Sox. That poor outing caused his ERA to balloon to 4.28. The Red Sox have the sixth-best slugging percentage in the majors at .412. They are also scoring an average of 4.71 runs per game
Detroit has scored 21 total runs in their last two games played but don’t forget that in their 8 games before that, they only scored a total of 11 and were shut out in three of those eight games while also scoring just one run in another three.
The law of averages will take the Tigers back to their old way here. They are also averaging fewer than 3 runs per game on the road and have struggled against right-handed starters this season. I expect the Red Sox to score around 6 runs here but the Tigers will be good for probably 3 so that makes me like the under.
Prediction: Under 9.5